mrsuper.org

Happy West Virginia Primary Day

If it's Tuesday, it must be election day!

Today voters take to the polls in the beautiful Mountaineer state (and it really is one of the prettiest places in America).  Senator Clinton is expected to win big, and the number of Superdelegates she needs to win the nomination will depend on her overall margin of Victory tonight.  Once again, here's the New York Times calculator to help on that front.

What Supers will be looking for tonight: Will Senator Clinton hold a 30-point margin of victory tonight?  Will the swing in momentum keep some Clinton supporters home, or will a smaller margin of victory indicate that the polling in this state was never really that accurate to begin with?  Waiting with bated breath...

Predictions anyone?

A Summer Break for the Student Vote?

If there's any surprise that has stood out among a year of surprises, it's been the mobilization of student voters around the country.  Compared to previous years, the turnout has been impressive.

The remaining big states on the calendar seem like a Division I-A college football schedule: West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, then you get South Dakota in there for your early season easy win.  One of the first things a political organizer does when they hit the ground for a campaign is look at the available volunteer pool - and students are a big part of that.  So a look at the academic calendar of the local university is required reading.  Here's what we find in these states:

Of the remaining states, all of the major public institutions will be out of session by the time the state holds a primary - except for Oregon. 

West Virginia University officially let out last week, both the University of Kentucky and the University of Louisville are in Summer break, and South Dakota is done for the academic year.  Among major public institutions, seems like only the Oregon schools will be in session when the primaries come to town.

This didn't seem to be a problem earlier this year when Iowa students returned to campus in order to vote on January 3rd, but that was also in the middle of the semester.  In other words, students still had their dorm and campus area housing.  At this point, many students will have moved for the summer which means they may no longer live where they are registered to vote. 

Politico received a tip yesterday from a lawyer who thinks that certain election rule books in West Virginia outline stricter standards than necessary pertaining to required ID, and that such strict rules could disproportionately affect students who may hold ID's from other areas.

Unite or Prolong?

Today Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post asks if it's better for Democrats to campaign to the end, or is it hurtful?  David Broder wrote on Sunday in his piece entitled "The Price of Delay" that it's hurtful.  Clearly the public angst wants this over with as it seems like the primary jumped the shark a long time ago.

The elongated primary process is helpful in that it is allowing Democrats to build an organization in nearly every state.  However, Senator McCain wrapping-up the GOP nomination in March puts us at some disadvantage because he is campaigning without being challenged at the moment.

But that doesn't change the fact that Democrats have begun talking to rural and small town voters again, as well as registering new people in droves.  All of which will be extremely helpful in the fall election.

What we are essentially getting right now is something that Americans have asked for over and over again: a primary process where all states get to participate.

Whereas a national primary is a horrible idea (it favors the candidate with the most money and name recognition, and could produce a nominee who only garnered 30% of the vote), there are a couple of alternate proposals out there which I blogged about on April 1st.  These alternatives are the Rotating Regional Primary plan offered by the National Association of Secretaries of States and the "American Plan" offered up by someone out of UC Berkeley.  I like the NASS plan myself.

 

Harold & Kumar go to bat for Obama

During my undeclared stance, I got a fair share of celebrity calls to sway my vote one way or another (though they were political celebrities, not the Hollywood set).  Had a good conversation with President Clinton earlier this year as well as other well-known political figures.  But around February I told both campaigns that they needn't have any "names" call, figured I could have more candid conversations with staff and other people who I got to know from both campaigns.

But, that isn't to say that there are some interesting calls being made.  Today the New York Times writes about the two representatives from the College Democrats of America (a group in which I got my start in during the 90's) receiving calls from "Kumar" of "Harold & Kumar" fame recently.  Which makes me think that maybe I should have held out a little longer, because would have accepted a phone call from Natalie Portman.

Can Actor Sway College Superdelegates?

After inching past Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton in the official tally of superdelegates last week, Senator Barack Obama is looking to extend his lead, and his campaign is hoping a little star power might do the trick.

Actor Kal Penn, who currently stars in the movie, “Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay,” fired off a letter today to the two remaining uncommitted college superdelegates, urging them to get in Mr. Obama’s corner.

West Virginia, Kentucky & Goalposts

The LA Times cites Tad Devine's point that if Senator Clinton were to drop out of the race and leave Senator Obama as the presumptive nominee, that he could still lose West Virginia and Kentucky.  Given that Senator Clinton leads by nearly 30 points, she's is very likely going to win these states.  Awkward, indeed.  But does it change anything?  Not really.

Senator Clinton will handily win West Virginia and Kentucky, but the delegate haul will amount to scoring a couple of field goals at a time when a couple of touchdowns are needed.

For better or for worse, the race is now about Superdelegates - because there just aren't enough pledged delegates left to make a major difference in the race.  And as of this morning, Senator Clinton needs 87% of the remaining Supers in order to claim the nomination.

Myth #2 (cont.) - Republicans Do Have Supers

Josh Marshall wrote in his May 4th article that Republicans don't have Superdelegates.  This is something that people overlook quite a bit, as even the Republicans try to hide the fact that they have Superdelegates.

I noted this in Myth #2 back in March, and shortly after that posting Abbi Tatton at CNN also gave a report about Republicans having a similar system.

The "unpledged RNC members" as noted in this running delegate tally at CNN, are Superdelegates.  They go by a different name, but they still have the right to pledge their vote however they please which demonstrates that, yes, Republicans do in fact have Superdelegates!

On a related note: I'll give Marshall credit for introducing me to French Market Coffee, which he blogged about shortly after Hurricane Katrina posed a threat to the available supply.

Saturday Q&A

Quite a few questions came across the comments sections over the past week, and I've been having a bit of trouble keeping up with the volume.  But since Q&A is part of this site, I wanted to put up a Saturday post offering answers where I'm able.

A lot of questions are moot now given the events of the past week.  But there are timely ones which I'm attempting to answer today.  Also - questions which have been emailed directly to me is still the best way to get a question seen!  Here goes:

Kasturba asked: Can Senator Clinton use general election funds to pay for primary election debt?
A: No.  The Federal Elections Commission (FEC) only allows donors to contribute a maximum of $2,300 per candidate per election (meaning you can give up to $4,600 but only $2,300 can be used in a primary election and $2,300 in a general election).  I believe that dollars raised for general election funds must be returned (as John Edwards had to do) or possibly transfered into another federal account.  They certainly cannot be used to pay off primary campaign expenses.

Judy asked: Can pollster Jon Zogby legimately be a DNC Member?
A: Yes, though Jon Zogby doesn't actually sit on the national committee, his brother Jim is on the DNC (Thank you Susie Turnbull for the clarification).  But there are other political professionals who sit on the DNC and provide useful counsel to the Party.  We have people on the national committee from all walks of life: lawyers, business professionals, teachers, retirees, you name it.

Remember: this whole Superdelegate thing is a rarity, most of what we do in the four years leading up to a presidential election is build the Party, shape opinions, advocate for legislation and elect Democrats from the local level on up.  We can use all of the constructive feedback we can get from all various walks of life.

 
Grand Panjandrum asks how long before the VP selection process starts and will we have a nominee before July 4th?
A: Typically what will happen is that some names will be "teased" to the press in order to create conversation and to see what public opinion is on certain running mates, but it's unlikely that it will formally begin until *after* July 4th and we'll see an announcement sometime in early August.

On the subject of Momentum...
If this week is any indicator, yes, momentum has been and still is a part of this campaign!

The Memorial Day Marker

Back on topic here, I want to revisit something that I first took a guess at in March, that this nomination battle would be resolved by Memorial Day.  Things have changed quite a bit in the past 48 hours, made more evident by today's wave of endorsements for Senator Obama.  This will likely wrap-up sooner than that.

In April, Jed Report came up with the idea that this will be done by the May 20th Oregon primary, days before Memorial Day, when Senator Obama looks to claim a majority of pledged delegates.  Adding to this notion, Members of Congress will be heading home for recess from May 23rd - 30th.  This is not something they want dangling over their heads when they return home.

Both of these ideas are likely moot now.

Even though Senator Clinton is likey to win in West Virginia on Tuesday, there just aren't enough delegates left to make-up the difference in the race.  As of this posting, the New York Times delegate calculator says the Senator Clinton needs 81% of the available delegates remaining Superdelegates left to win the nomination.  She may stay in through West Virginia for one more win, then bow out on Wednesday.  Guess we'll see.

Have a good weekend.

Obama for President

As you've heard by now, today the Obama campaign announced that I've endorsed the Senator.  I think he's the right guy to unify our party and our country.  I hold much respect for the Clintons and their contributions to this country.  However, this race is clearly headed in one direction and it's time for us to coalesce around one candidate.

In addition to being able to give you a view from the "inside" of a Superdelegate's world (honestly, we are not that Super) it's been great to read your thoughts and opinions.  Supporters on both sides played a part in this declaration.

The reason I held out these past few months was due to my working for a candidate who was up for election this week, and I didn't want my politics to get in the way of hers (I hope this adds more insight as to why some Supers wait).  I announced that I was the author of this page yesterday, knowing that I would endorse soon and thus changing the entire premise of the site.

I will continue to regularly update this site through the nomination process, and I have had a few friends who work in politics offer to help carry the editorial weight.  So we'll see how it works out.

In the meantime, the attached image is one that I took in Sioux City, Iowa on caucus night this year.  It's a little out of focus, but I think it makes a statement.  Draw your own conclusions.

Cheers,

-Ed.

Friday Veepstakes

Could Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey balance out a presidential ticket?  Politico asks the question and makes some good points.

Though Casey hasn't been in the Senate all that long, so he does bring a lot of federal experience to the table.  Also hindering his prospects are that he's pro-gun and pro-life, which is certain create a stir among the party activist ranks.  But Casey carries an important constituency (Christian white voters) and he could make Pennsylvania a bit harder for Republicans to vie for in the fall. 

Might not be a perfect selection, but then again nothing in the Veepstakes guessing game ever is...

Why Mr. Super?

Since the site has picked-up more readers, and since I've received more questions e-mailed and in the comments section over the past week, I thought it might be time to re-introduce the premise of the site and why I started it.

First of all - yes, I am an actual undeclared Superdelegate.  I started this website a few months ago to offer a view on the Democratic nomination process for President, to debunk myths, to shed light on the process and to give the public a forum to interact on the topic of Supers.

So, why author the site anonymously?  I stand by everything I've written on the site - but I didn't want the site to be about me, I wanted it to be about the topic of Superdelegates.  My real name is Edward Espinoza and I am a represent California on the DNC.

The site was established under the premise that it would be a public service to give people access to the thoughts of a Superdelegate, and that no personal gain would be made - no advertising to earn money from and no name recognition to be gained.

Many members of the media verified my identity early on and agreed to keep it confidential in order to keep within the spirit of why the site was founded.  Today I announced that I would reveal my identity because, as this process begins to wind down, I think that you the readers deserve to know where you've been getting your information from.  I figured it to be fair.

But ultimately, this blog is about Superdelegates.  I do not comment on debates or other issues that do not directly pertain to Supers - I barely have time to post about just the subject of Supers!  I try but I am not always able to read all of the comments here - so if you have a question that you don't see answered in the site, try sending an e-mail.  I will continue to offer my thoughts on a basis that is as objective as possible and provide you with background info as I am able.

I am not really a "blogger," but I have been in politics for quite some time which I think gives me a good point of reference in addition to being a so-called "Superdelegate."  I have close ties to personnel in both campaigns.  I try to keep the text void of emotion and be fair in my analysis.  I won't bash anyone and I stand by everything I write here - I wouldn't type anything that I wouldn't say publicly.

Anyway, enough about me.  Hope you enjoy the site.

Further proving it's "Operation Crackpot"

Revisiting Myth #7...exit polls show that must Republicans voting for Democrats in the Indiana primaries are quite genuine with their votes.  Today's Washington Post looks into the crosstabs and supports this notion.  The sky is not falling, the end is not near and Rush Limbaugh is not influencing Democratic primary outcomes.

Numbers don't lie, folks:

More "Sincere" Crossover

Here's more data for the raging debate over GOP mischief in last night's Democratic primary in Indiana: On balance, network exit polls show Republican crossover voters expressing little other than a sincere preference for Clinton over Obama.

First, Clinton edged Obama in Indiana's open primary among self-identified Democrats, 52 to 48 percent. And removing all GOP-identifiers from the voter pool does not budge the overall result. Perhaps the focus on non-Democrats is misplaced.

But the topline numbers are so intriguing.

Republicans made up 10 percent of all Democratic voters in Indiana last night, their highest share of the electorate in any Democratic primary this year other than Mississippi. Not only did Clinton win Republicans in Indiana by eight percentage points, but about six in 10 of those who supported her in the primary said they would vote for McCain over Clinton in a hypothetical general election match-up. (Most Republicans voting for Obama said they would stick with him in the fall.)

A closer look, however, reveals that most Republicans for Clinton appear to genuinely prefer Clinton to Obama, which was the choice at hand. They opted to vote in one of the hottest elections in years, perhaps with an eye to giving themselves more appealing options in the fall.

About nine in 10 GOP Clinton voters said she would make a better commander in chief, and more than six in 10 said she would have a better shot at beating McCain. They were also more than twice as likely as other voters to prioritize an experienced candidate. And three-quarters of these voters said they would be satisfied with Clinton atop the Dem ticket, just 15 percent said so about Obama.

A narrow majority of Clinton Republicans did say that Clinton does not share their values, but more said so of Obama. All politics is comparative.

And looking at the Indiana exit poll numbers by race also seems to dampen any "Limbaugh effect." Overall, Clinton won the state's white voters by 20 percentage points. Republicans, 95 percent of those who voted Democratic yesterday were white, broke for her by eight points, but that was much narrower than her win among white Democrats: she outpaced Obama by nearly 2-1 among those voters.

Bring on the Supers

As I've stated before, I expect to see quite a bit of movement on Superdelegates in the next two weeks.  If this gets wrapped-up before Memorial Day - it's good news for Senator Obama.  If it extends to June 4th - it's good news for Senator Clinton.

There are now more unpledged Superdelegates left than there are pledged delegates.  Senator Clinton's win in Indiana was symbolic in that it is still a victory.  However, the net delegate gain on the night went to Senator Obama since North Carolina has more delegates - and his wider margin of victory netted him a larger percentage of delegates.  The overall math doesn't look good for Clinton, either.

I've stated before that most Supers do not revel in the notion of putting one candidate over the top.  Having said that, Kos recommends waiting two weeks until Oregon.

Note: Congressional recess is Memorial Day week, which is right after Oregon.  Unless Senator Clinton has enough momentum generated from potential wins in West Virginia and Kentucky, many undeclared Members of Congress will be dealing with a looming issue of a presidential nomination when heading to their home districts.  Not a prospect to revel in.

Finally: Obama memo on Superdelegates here.

Metrics

Lots of variables tossed around recently as to how to consider who should be the Democratic nominee.  Pledged delegates, popular vote, electoral vote, who leads in general election match-up polling, who has more blue state and/or red state wins.  Peter Funt satirically wrote that Senator Clinton has won more "new" states whereas someone else noted that Senator Obama has won more square ones.

This can be easily simplified: the one who figures out how to win the most delegates is the winner. 

Doesn't matter how they win those delegates, from red states or from Supers or from states with three electoral votes or 55 electoral votes or by any other means.  Because while all of those metrics may be things that Supers weigh when making public declarations of support, the rules call for the nominee to be determined by delegates - not just pledged delegates, not just Superdelegates, but all delegates. That is something that isn't lost upon any of us.

A note about general election match-ups: they don't matter at this point.  It was a sigh of relief last night to see David Gergen on CNN talking about general election polling in June of 1992 when Bill Clinton was running third in general and it looked like Ross Perot was about to be America's first President and CEO.  John Kerry was leading Bush II, even Michael Dukakis had a 17-point lead over Bush Sr. at one point.  The point is that polls for any election don't mean much when nearly six months out.

North Carolina Update #4

Some counties in North Carolina have the jurisdiction to stay open a bit later if there are circumstances deeming such a move necessary.  A late start causes a polling place to stay open late in coastal Pamlico County, while a rural voter in Johnston County takes this whole "race for the presidency" thing a bit too literally...and crashes into the polling place (everyone's ok).