Happy Keystone Primary Day!

It's been nearly seven.  long.  weeks.  Wow - I mean it kind of feels like a holiday, don't it?  Like we should be packing our duffles for a road trip to Vegas, or even wear green at work today. 

I originally posted this yesterday for our friends at DemConWatch, thought I'd cross-post it over here today since it is topical...

What Supers are Watching for on Tuesday

As we head into Tuesday's balloting, there are two things that Superdelegates like me will be looking for: electability and Party unity. Who is the stronger candidate in both categories?

If we've learned anything in this presidential nomination process, it's that the only predictable thing is that it will be unpredictable.

But the polls suggest that by all accounts Senator Clinton will win on Tuesday. In any other election, a win is a win is a win. But in this particular contest, the type of win is particularly key. And whether it's fair or not, the Clinton campaign needs to win by a convincing margin in order to make a statement. If that does not happen, and if the negative campaigning backfires, it could dampen that campaign's hope for a win in Indiana on May 6th.

Because while it's accepted that Clinton will in Pennsylvania, it is also accepted that Senator Obama will in North Carolina on May 6th. If there is a scenario in which he also wins in Indiana that day, can the Clinton campaign bounce back from two same-day losses at that point in the campaign cycle? That's a tall order. Add to that, a squeaker win in Pennsylvania might mean the only way to win Indiana is with another negative ad blitz.

I guess that means the Clinton camp is effectively running two campaigns right now - one to win Pennsylvania and another to remain viable in Indiana. Stay tuned...

Comments

[Bilbo]

Thanks Mr Super, Happy Keystone Primary Day to you too! It felt good to finally cast my vote for Obama today. I got a nice robo-call from Michelle Obama earlier. And, one last visit from an Obama supporter at my door...she gave me a high-five when she saw my Obama '08 button. I didn't get one call or visitor from a Hillary supporter, it's like they knew I was already decided.

[Bilbo]

My 8 year old daughter just got home from school. They held a vote in her class. Obama got 13 votes, Hillary 5, and McCain 4. Please consider this Mr Super when making your decision ;o)

[thisniss]

Bilbo, the kid vote is usually the best poll, in my experience. My mother had preschools in Kentucky for 20 years and I'm now raising an 8-year-old in NC. I've seen tons of kid votes over the years. You would expect the kid vote to reflect the parent vote, but in my experience, they don't - but they do usually reflect the eventual popular vote. I saw Gore votes in KY in 2000, and was deeply chagrined when my son's preschool class voted Bush in '04.

While the state of NC was a Bush state overall, there's no way that the kid vote in my son's class reflected their parents' preferences, because we live in a "liberal enclave" (Chapel Hill). All those families had Kerry/Edwards stickers on their cars (and in some cases, older Edwards or Dean stickers)! I am proud to say that at least my kiddo had the good sense to vote Dem. In fact, the class ended up divided 10/9, so it was a fairly reflective general election poll. But even with a squeaker I had a sinking feeling when the kid vote in a Chapel Hill preschool class went to Bush.

I have absolutely no idea what this means, and of course my "evidence" is completely anecdotal. Still, I've often thought that a clever pollster would add a 4-17 demographic. And maybe an incredibly clever pollster would weight it more heavily than the actual voters in the pool. :-)

At any rate, I'm going to tell myself that your daughter's kid vote signals a landslide for Obama in the general! And yes, Mr. Super, I second the motion that you should consider this when making your decision.

[G Davis]

Also please consider that in the worst month of his campaign, Senator Obama gained ground in virtually all the base voter categories (save maybe Catholic but they voted against Kerry in PA too!) from Ohio to PA, two very similar states.

I would also consider the network he is developing. His outreach program is unparalleled in history with his nearly 2 million donors. He's created a virtual public financing network all by himself! That can only help down ticket which is as important, if not more, than the Presidency.

[coco]

Please consider all the ???? surrounding Obama. Sen. Clinton is clearly the more viable candidate! Living in Indiana my family & I are Proud to support Sen. Clinton!