Pennsylvania Predictions

After witnessing three presidential nominating contests up close this year, I try to avoid making any predictions about the primaries.  Everyone gets almost everything wrong.  But polls are still good indicators, and I've become a fan of President Polls 2008 which provides a list of all recent polls in one place.  Real Clear Politics offers one as well, but I just like the President Polls one more.  No real reason why.

In any case - if the polls are any indication - it looks like Senator Clinton can count on a win on Tuesday.  Because this is a battleground state, there are never any easy races - primaries or generals.  And in any normal statewide race in Pennsylvania, a win of more than 2% could be considered strong.  Though the current climate has lifted an expectation for Clinton to win by double digits in order for that to be the case.

But there's another issue that I am not hearing much of in the media.  And whether or not it's considered to be fair, this truth remains: not all wins are created equal.  And in this case, it will help the Clinton campaign to win strong because this win needs to have legs that carry the momentum beyond just this state.

Because while a win is important, a bigger indicator here is that Senator Clinton's performance in Pennsylvania likely has a direct impact on another rust belt state: Indiana.

If the Clinton campaign gains a win by only inches in the Keystone state, it could slow down her momentum in the Hoosier state - and while winning a squeaker on April 22nd keeps her in the game, losing two on May 6th (Indiana and North Carolina) won't help her position.  More than anything else, aside from delegates and popular votes, momentum is why the campaign needs to perform well on Tuesday.

Comments

[TheSteve]

Mr. Super,

Do you really believe momentum is at play in this election? I mean, it is normally a big factor, but it seems to have stymied this year. One would figure if there was going to be momentum it would have come after 11 straight bigh-margin victories by the Obama camp - but its never seemed to materialize for either side. It seems, to me at least, to be a little late in the game to be talking about momentum and whether or not it's a factor. I and a good deal of the people in NC have been following this race for quite some time - I doubt many people are going to change their minds at this point short of something spectacular. For that matter, everyone's been going on about how Clinton will win Pennsylvania for over 40 days now - I don't see how a win there really surprises anyone unless it's gigantic.

[Mr Super]

Though the momentum in this race is different, it still exists - momentum is always a factor in every race. It's just a matter of measuring it in inches instead of in waves for this particular contest.

[Dave]

Question with Obama out spending Clinton by 2 or 3 to 1 the Clinton campaign is running in the red. Although Obama did not figure on winning he spent her into the red is this a good strategy? In winning at all cost didn't she spend herself out of the Primaries?

[Bilbo]

Momentum is a popular concept, but it's measurement in politics is not as easy to judge as it is in sports. As you correctly point out you cannot base it on wins/losses, but rather on how much recent movement in a particular direction has occured. Pennsylvania has long been thought to be an easy Clinton victory, but polling has continued to move in Obama's direction. It's likely she will still get the win, but anything less than double-digits is not evidence of momentum. It could in fact be the opposite. It could be that perceived momentum is important to undeclared superdelegates wanting some political cover. Of course, Hillary has nothing to lose by encouraging us to consider a win in PA momentum just as she did with TX/OH. If she loses, she is done. If she wins, she wants the pundits talking about how she can carry her momentum (even if most of the recent movement was in the opposite direction) into the other primaries. If she wins NC than I'll believe she's got the mo. But, we'll just have to see how much it matters if he still has the lead in the end.

[Mr Super]

Dave - McCain did the same thing in Florida that Clinton is doing now. I don't know if it will work for her, but it seemed to work for fine for him.

[Dan_in_upstate_NY]

Mr Super,

Forget predictions--that's what I read other blogs for. What I'm interested in is your point of view as a superdelegate. You've said that you have a preference, but are undeclared. Is there anything that might happen tomorrow night that would fundamentally alter your preference? Are you going to be parsing exit polls?

After all, Obama is still going to end the season with the most delegates and (excluding MI) the most votes.

More broadly, do the results of PA somehow matter "more" for undeclared superdelegates than the other 45+ completed contests?

Inquiring minds want to know.

[Mr Super]

Something very unexpected would have to happen on Tuesday for Supers to start announcing preferences en mass.

[Jay]

At some point the superdelegates are going to realize that Obama has had trouble putting Clinton away. He has never made the sale to the voters, especially in the states that matter. Penna. can't be pushed aside as just one state. It's demographics require intensive review by the superdelegates as it really mirrors what matters for Democrats to win in November. If Obama can't win in Penna. at this late date, outspending Hillary 4-1 and with pundits calling for her to pull out, then a full review is in order of this entire contest. At this point, Obama should be pulling away and he isn't--and there is good reason. The superdelegates will just have to figure this out (hopefully sooner rather than later) and conclude that Hillary is the stronger candidate where it counts.

[Bilbo]

Jay, if Obama is having trouble putting Hillary away than how bad must it be for Hillary to be losing and unable to make up any significant ground. You must know that the victim card (pundits calling for her to pull out) is overplayed by now. I think all the spinning around why Hillary should win is making people dizzy.

[Mr Super]

Jay, I don't think I really buy your argument, but what's most troubling about your post is the continued abbreviating of Pennsylvania as "Penna" instead of "Penn" or perhaps the more concise "PN." But that's just me.

[Jay]

Well Mr. Super, since I am originally from Penna. I can tell you that the state is abbreviated as Pa. or Penna. It is not abreviated as Penn (officially anyway). Perhaps you should now re-think your position about the state tomorrow. Again, if after all the money spent by Obama and all the critics calling for Hillary to get out, she wins tommorrow, someone, somewhere better wake up.

[Mr Super]

Good all on the PA - I can't believe I missed that. Demerits!

[Julie Hensley]

I cannot believe that you find it hard to understand WHY Barack would have trouble pulling away from Hillary in PA. After all - she's been half of the Mr & Mrs Democratic Party for the last 20 years and Pennsylvania LOVES the Clintons. Sure Obama spent big bucks there and it brought up the spread by over 15% (depending on when you start looking at the polls) and carried him through a couple issues that threatened to blow up a campaign... so I guess I can't get over people buying Hillary's line that 'he can't close the deal'. Let me point out that this is a Democracy. Why hasn't SHE closed the deal? She was the Presumptive Nominee until February. Why is SHE having $$ problems? I mean who SHOULD know more donors than the Clintons? I think it is obvious that something is fundamentally WRONG with her campaign that as a leader she is not the one inspiring crowds of 20,000 or more at her rallies or over a million donors.

Just by talking like this it sounds like Mr. Super has been listening to the HRC camp a bit too much!