Update from the Weekend

Was in an upcoming primary state over the weekend, had a chance to hear from voters in these areas.  Not surprising to know that, in states which have yet to primary, these voters are not nearly as eager for Superdelegates to weigh-in on the nomination right now.  I suppose most people in their situation would feel the same way.

Also spoke to personnel from the national campaigns.  Both are moving forward and preparing to be the presumptive nominee.  One of the camps is preparing to push this effort to Denver if necessary.

An effort to take this to the floor of the convention will not receive any meaningful support from Supers.

Comments

[Angry Vet]

Long-time watchers of this primary confrontation can read between the lines on this subject. Though Mr. Super is undeclared, I think it is quite clear that he/she is not undecided.

[Johan]

At the end of the primaries Obama wil be up around 100 pledged delegates (any fool can do the math...), but Clinton will be perceived to have The Big Mo (BIG wins in WV, KY, PR, possible wins in OR, MT, SD). What will be more important to superdelegates in June, the plurality of pledged delegates or the momentum and standing in national polls (Gallup, Rasmussen tracking polls)? I'd like to hear mrsuper's views on that question!

[Scott]

Angry Vet, Mr. Super has said as much many times here. He has also said that almost all of the "undeclared" superdelegates are also not undecided, but it is just not prudent for them to declare.

[Angry Vet]

Scott,

Roger. Simplifying for those who are not long time readers of this site. As it was, my comment was nothing more than re-stating the obvious, thus, probably, unnecessary. Beats listening to my Evidence class, though.

[Mr Super]

Johan - I posed that exact question to another Super last night on the phone.

If there were to be a scenario where Senator Clinton wins all of the remaining primaries, or perhaps all but one or two...that could change the political landscape.

As far as most Supers are concerned, both campaigns have an opportunity to prove their standing between now and June 3rd.

[kylej]

Johan - momentum is a moot point and a relatively meaningless metric in this case. Hillary has been running for YEARS, everyone knows who she is, it's not like people are all of a sudden learning all about her and warming up to her. Her problem is her low ceiling of likability. The supers have the right to overturn Obama's pledged delegate lead if they think she is more electable against McCain, but that is really the only thing to argue at this point. Both Obama and Hillary supporters are so attached to their candidate that they are starting to tell pollsters they would vote for McCain if their candidate doesn't get the nod. I think that with a few months to heal and come together both sides will back the dem nominee. But if Hillary fights to the convention (the only way she gets the nomination imo) I think there will be enough Obama supporters who will vote McCain or not vote at all. I like Hillary, but it's hard for me to see how she can realistically win the presidency at this point.

[Sommer]

Did you tell that other camp, that if they take this to Denver that they will not have support of the Super Delegates? Or did they already know that and not care?

[Dan_in_upstate_NY]

Now you have me confused, Mr Super--seems like there's some moving of the goal posts going on. Previously, I had the impression from you that many (if not most) of the undeclared supers would vote for the candidate with the most pledged delegates. Now you are hinting that last-minute momentum could matter more, perhaps to the extent that many supers would override the pledged delegate leader? My question is: why? The primary season is like a baseball season: long, with 180 games overall. Even if a team suffers a late-season losing streak, their overall record still earns them a spot in the playoffs. Why, then, should a hypothetical late-season winning streak by Clinton override the entirety of the previous 5 months of winning by Obama?

(I think, by the way, that this is all academic. I predict that Clinton will win WV, KY, and PR, and Obama will win NC, OR, MT, and SD, thus leaving us in exactly the same place we are now. No momentum either way.)

[Mr Super]

Dan - No moving of the goalposts here. I didn't mean to pose that as a hypothetical and state that the outcome would change, only to imply that the public mood may change.

The numerical reality may not change if one candidate wins all or nearly all of the remaining contests, but the public mood from a string of wins or losses could create a whole other political reality. That was my only point.

[Nate]

The double standard applied to Obama's campaign is troubling. Winning by HUGE margins isn't enough--it's essentially equivalent to Clinton winning by a small margin in a big state. Winning 12 in a row isn't enough. If Hillary wins 4 in a row, she's back on track. Winning more pledged delegates isn't enough--he has to win just the right way.

Part of this is that he's the new guy on the block; part of it is the media; part of it may be something else. But the funny thing is, before this primary, many super-delegates were hoping someone would come along and provide an alternative to Hillary Clinton--widely viewed as an unpopular, and unelectable candidate. Now that they have the opportunity, though, she's got them over a barrel, so to speak, because she's convinced enough people that she still has a shot to win clean, and supers don't want to alienate her base. It's really an interesting battle.

[John]

Quoting above: "Now you have me confused, Mr Super--seems like there's some moving of the goal posts going on. Previously, I had the impression from you that many (if not most) of the undeclared supers would vote for the candidate with the most pledged delegates."

Here's why momentum matters. This might be at one-time fluke poll, or it could be a trend. If a trend, momentum does in fact matter:

From AP-Ipsos poll:

Clinton 50, McCain 41
Obama 46, McCain 44

[JJ in SD]

South Dakota is set to have it's first contested democratic primary since the 1960's. I am very fired up to have a vote that actually counts for a change!

That said, as much as I'm looking forward to handing Obama the majority of South Dakota's whoppping 14 delegates, I'd much rather this whole thing was just done and over. Wouldn't our energies be much better used against the GOP candidate?

I have horrid visions of McCain sliding into the White House, as the Dems continue to bicker. South Dakotans know how easily that can happen. Our current governor quietly kept his head down and was a surprise (to everyone) winner his first election, because the fighting and mud-slinging of his two main (more qualified) competitors turned everyone off. I can't bear to think of that happening here. Please, Please....just end this.

[milkyway]

Regarding today's poll showing Hillary doing better against McCain than Obama:

It's hard for me to believe that, if the numbers are similar in June, the supers will decide to take the nomination from the pledged delegate leader and give it instead to the leader in a hypothetical poll. That won't happen, and I think Mr. Super would agree. These kind of numbers may cause some handwringing, but why even bother with primaries and caucuses if the nomination is to be decided by hypothetical polls instead?

Things have been a bit bumpy lately for Obama, but that's mostly media perception. Clinton has had a nice little run, but that's because the states demographically favorable to her were lumped together (likewise, Obama's big run in February was helped along by states favorable to him being bunched together). Pennsylvania could not have been more favorable to her--one of the oldest states, low-income, blue-collar, the right racial mix, a machine state with endorsements from the Gov and two mayors, borders NY, and she had family connections there. The state was set on a tee for her, yet Obama was able to slice more than ten points off her early margin, while improving his numbers in most every demographic when compared to Ohio. And Clinton should have easily won Texas. It borders Arkansas and has a very high percentage of Latinos. Yet even though she had a large lead in early polling, Clinton only won the popular vote by three points.

Nothing much has changed except the cyclical nature of polls and media perception. Yes, Obama needs to sharpen things up, but the worst thing he could do is listen to the Chris Matthews's of the world, go into a panic, and try to be someone other than Barack Obama.

[Laura]

Re: Clinton having a "nice little run" going, just a note... She has a run of only one state. Prior to PA, Obama won TX (caucus and overall), VT, WY, and MS.

[snowbird42]

I have heard that the Clinton camp is threatening the Supers. Comments like "you are dead to me" Are they afraid to cross the machine?

[Heidi in Texas]

Mr. Super,

Based on some of your posts, I have a gut feeling regarding your identity. Then again, my gut feelings can be wrong more often than they're right. The more a secret is out there, the more curious I become - sorry. (This is how I find out all of my Christmas presents beforehand) Just a question for you though so humor me if you wish - do your first and last initials match the initials of the city where you were born? :)

Okay, I'll shut up about that. On to a point that you can appreciate: You are a sound voice of reason for Democratic voters who are completely stressed about the upcoming endorsements or the non committment of the Superdelegates. I appreciate now why many have held out and am a lot more confident in their judgement. After reading your posts, you ladies and gents are far more measured and informed than the media's scare tactics give you credit for. If I overdose on media spin and get all upset about it, I visit your site to calm me down and put things back in perspective for me.

As for taking this fight to the Credentials Committee in Denver, I feel that would be irresponsible and unfair to the Democratic party and to all the voters supporting Democratic candidates in the most exciting campaign year in my lifetime. We've expended a lot of energy this year to ensure the Democratic Party reclaims the White House. I'd hate to think that all of our efforts go to waste if John McCain wins in the fall due to a deep division within the Democratic Party. If this goes to the Credentials Committee, I truly feel that it will be too late to bring the party together considering the increased emotion the credentials fight will surely evoke.