The John Edwards Primary

Someone posted a comment yesterday that stirred thought about John Edwards.  The post came on the same day that the New York Times ran an article about his clout in the presidential nomination contest, especially with the North Carolina primary approaching.  There's something to keep in mind about his candidacy:

John Edwards didn't end his presidential campaign on Jan. 30th - he suspended it.

A suspended campaign means that a candidate is out of the race, but that the campaign still holds on to its pledged delegates.  So John Edwards holds 19 of his original 26 delegates.  Some of his delegates were filtered when state conventions were selecting national convention delegates, leaving him with 19 - but that is still a significant block of delegates.

Because typically, though it's not a guarantee, once a former candidate makes an endorsement, the pledged delegates will follow as a block.  The last time this happened was in 1992, when Paul Tsongas suspended his campaign and later transferred delegates to Bill Clinton - adding to his momentum and helping him convincingly defeat Jerry Brown in the primaries.

And because support has historically transfered as a block, and because Democratic primaries award delegates not on the basis of winner-take-all but rather on proportional allocation, it means the 19 delegates in the John Edwards Primary represent a larger haul than what can be expected to be won by at least one of the candidates in some of the upcoming primaries.

Thus, when compared to stand-alone elections, the "John Edwards Primary" is worth more than the Guam, West Virginia, Montana or South Dakota primaries.

Senator Edwards is not a Superdelegate himself, but he controls the largest pool of available delegates outside of a state election.

John Edwards: Super Duper Delegate?

Comments

[Joe]

Yeah, but we all know that. The real question is who he'll endorse and what he's waiting for :-)

[Dave]

At this point without an endorsement before the North Carolina Primary Mr Edwards is of little importance. He may not want to back a loser, but by not backing anyone who is the real loser? This is tough for me as I was for Edwards.

Yes he has 19 pledged delegates, but if he stays silent then he is removing them from the pool of pledged delegates. I see no major impact from them at this point as there is approx. 150 pledged delegate difference.

Do you as a Super Delegate really think that in the end there is going to be any real movement that can change this Primary?

[Bilbo]

Since Edwards decided not to endorse before the NC primary my guess would be that he will follow the leader. He'll throw his support behind the clear winner (Obama).

[don]

Mr. Super, you should definitely watch this:

http://www.comedycentral.com/colbertreport/videos.jhtml?videoId=166019

Edwords: "no white mail vote is courted more vigourously than this one". The whole thing is hilarious.

[Kelly]

I have a strong feeling John Edwards is for Obama. There have been a lot of rumors that Elizabeth is for Hillary, so I think if John liked Hillary too he'd have no problem announcing.

Do you have any insight, Mr Super?

[LindaS]

And can anyone tell which way the wind is blowing with him, given the endorsements for Obama by 29 Edwards backers in NC (including his campaign director) and the endorsement of Clinton by the NC gov.?

[G Davis]

Are you suggesting that Edwards could reenter the race with your he suspended but didn't end his campaign?

[suekzoo]

Is it possible for him to release his delegates with the instruction to make their own decision? Follow their conscience?

[Lynne B]

Elizabeth Edwards was just interviewed on MSNBC, she said she 'endorses Hillary's health care plan' but in no way endorses either candidate.

[Another Mike]

Do you really think an Edwards endorsement can deliver the Edwards pledged delegate to whichever candidate Edwards endorses? I'm skeptical. These 19 delegates must be party insiders with their own opinions. They are under no obligation to support any candidate Edwards endorses.

[Joe]

Hmm, maybe I'll make my own theory, then. Mind you, these are the musings of a nobody, not based on fact at all, but pulled straight from my posterior. So please give them the weight they deserve and pretend I'm a 'political insider' on a major news network. :)

I think he wants to support Hillary, but she needs to be within 'striking range' before he'll do it because he wants to be VP. So he's waiting to see if she's got the last-minute 'oomph' after the NC primary. If so, he endorses and gives her a major boost. Otherwise, he stays quiet. And the only reason he's not going for Obama is because Obama already promised the VP slot to Richardson.

Well, did I work together enough conspiracies? Or are there other things I can fit into this idea I just pulled out of my rear end? :)

[Mr Super]

A bunch of responses right quick.

G Davis - No, he won't re-enter the race. At least, not while there are still primaries going on. If there is a stalemate over the summer, who knows? But still unlikely even then.

suezkoo - Yes, he could release delegates to vote on their own accord but that is unlikely.

Another Mike - Yes, historically, the pledged delegates follow the endorsement of the person they were initially pledged to vote for. Keep in mind that even as pledged delegates they have no obligation but as we've seen in this race pledges are pretty darn strong.

Joe - you forgot the Kucinich UFO conspiracy.

[Scott]

He's been pretty clear on his priorities. Get that man a Jet Ski!

[Joe]

Damn, how could I work the UFO into that? It'd be pretty hard unless he uses a UFO to abduct one of the two candidates and end this... Frankly, it's disturbing that that's beginning to sound like a reasonable idea at this point :)

In the mean time, though, it's not as if we don't have enough real things to worry about. I just hope we don't see another election like 2000. See the following story if you don't know what I mean. We may never get reliable electronic voting because the people building them don't want to use open standards, allow inspection or auditing, or separate vote generating from vote counting machines. And the worst thing? People will come to hate "electronic voting" thanks to the incompetent designs (and shady manufacturers) when it could be done properly...

http://it.slashdot.org/it/08/04/29/1712215.shtml

[snowbird42]

Elizabeth was on Keith and said that while she like Hillarys health care plan better she wasn't endorsing her. That John(as well as Gore) felt that his endorsement would mean nothing at this point. They will wait until the end.

[Joe]

Remember how I called Rove's advice a trap?

Sure, it was good advice. And that was why it was a trap. But with the recent Rev. Wright flap reopened, you have Obama executing step 1 from Rove's playbook (though not by choice). Plus new allegations of Hillary's supporters setting up Rev. Wright's press conference and... Let's just say it's incendiary any way you look at it.

Is there a Democratic equivalent to Rove? (In skill, not underhandedness.) Someone should call him or her in...

[Martin]

I think there's legitimate concern with voting fraud. Another good place to see what's going on is http://www.blackboxvoting.org It calls Pennsylvania the worst place to vote in America. Check under the investigations section. It made my hair curl.

I have to say that I'm disgusted the way the Clinton campaign has turned into a hatchet job. It's racist and maniacal and the press isn't exactly unbiased in their coverage. It's not just frustrating. I'm angry enough to leave the party if she gets the nod.

[Joe]

Well, that's part of why I support Obama, Martin. Given that he's listening to people like Lawrence Lessig, I have to think he's on the right track. Whether Congress will ever get a clue, I don't know.

It's particularly frustrating to me because I'm one of those techie guys who knows all the stuff they're doing wrong and is horrified by it. I mean, we have people distributing a PDF with a "how to" guide for hacking these things because it's just that easy and they want to get the word out before people get complacent about them.

But the vendors are out suing anyone who discloses how shoddy their work is. Comparing the auditing standards for a Vegas slot machine to these things really makes you wonder where priorities are.

Instead, industry folks want everyone to use their own super-secret but insecure models, rather than having an open, standard format for these things. That's sorta like buying lamps with dodgey wiring off the back of some guys truck and having to go back to him every time you need new bulbs, because they use a non-standard (trade secret) size socket...

[AntonioMaceo]

imo if he is going to endorse at all the only time to do it is tomorrow or Thursday at the latest, so it can be in the Sunday news programs. Since Indiana is the only primary left that is truly contested, if he waits until after that there would be no effect. My guess is that he will not endorse.

[Tony]

I don't think Edwards will endorse before mini-mini-mini Super Tuesday, or whatever they are calling Indiana/NC now. My gut feeling is that he wants to endorse HRC, but that it would be politically unwise to do it at this time. Since he vigorously argued that his campaign was on the issues, he probably doesn't want to come out in support of Barack due to some fundamental differences. At the end of the day, I think he waits it out.

There is one caveat. If Ace Smith and Mike Easley can pull out a miracle in NC, which I doubt, although polls show HRC closing, and if HRC can win in Indiana, which seems possible, then I think Edwards might reconsider. At that point, if HRC can land an Edwards endorsement, that's a lot of positive momentum for her.

[adam]

The obvious question, that nobody is asking and Mr Super has yet to answer: Would an Edwards endorsement have the ability to sway a significant number of SDs one way or the other--particularly among the SDs who supported him initially? Or are most SDs independent-minded enough to not care?

[Another Mike]

I'm guessing (hoping?) that he will not endorse. The Democratic party will need some undeclared "elders" who can go to whoever is losing at the end of the primaries and tell him or her that it's time to drop out for the good of the party. Edwards should be in that group along with Gore, Pelosi, Reid, and Carter.

[Tony in MI]

Since we're guessing, let me throw my scenario out there.

John Edwards is going to wait until Obama gets another 25 or so super delegates, not counting add-on SDs. At that point, Edwards will endorse Obama, effectively putting him over the top.

Perhaps Edwards will want something. A cabinet post? The VP? A role in forming the platform? Two jet skis? :)

As an aside, Mr Super, I love the site. I've been going junkie on this race. Your posts are information, supplying my habit.

[Buzzm1]

My guess is:

Edwards will endorse Barack Obama on May 14, 2008 in Grand Rapids, michigan