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May 13, 2008

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Alicia

Mr. Super, what do you expect will happen on May 31st when Michigan and Florida are discussed again?

hmd

They've said they don't want to commit to a compromise unless both Clinton and Obama camps will agree. But that doesn't seem to be in the cards right now. Leading in all statistical categories, Mr. Obama's campaign surely won't agree to anything that might put his lead at risk. Backed into a corner, with superdelegates slipping away, Mrs. Clinton's camp has to try for the home run - seating full MI and FL delegations according to the earlier vote. No room for compromise unless/until Clinton accepts that the nomination is out of reach for her.

If that doesn't happen, everything will be punted to the RBC, where the balance of power is still held by those who haven't yet committed. They may choose to delay yet again, in hopes that the nomination would be settled and delegations can be seated without further controversy. But they surely won't allow the delegations to be seated in such a way as to affect the outcome - that would undermine the punishment. The rules allow the national party to set some kind of coordinated policy for the primary schedule, and they won't reward the state parties for violating the policy.

LindaS

I don't think the issue with the college vote in Oregon is much of an issue because it's a mail-in primary.

Truth

Speaking of mail-in primary. I remember hearing about that a week or so ago. Wouldn't this mean the results of Oregon would not be made clear on the same day? Are the votes due on Primary Day, or just need to be postmarked by Primary Day?

Mr Super

Oddly enough, I've worked elections in three of the four states remaining on the calendar (Montana being the only exception).

The rules in Oregon state that ballots must be received by election night. A postmark of that day is not good enough. So election day in Oregon looks a lot different than in other places.

If you ever been to the post office on tax day to mail your returns, you know that government workers stand outside with bins in order to accommodate the traffic created by everyone trying to get their taxes in on time. Well, election day in Oregon looks a lot like tax day in most other states. Election workers standing outside at authorized drop-off locations with bins for voters to hand-off ballots.

It's quite interesting. And the mail-in process is an outstanding exercise in voter participation. In 2004, Multnomah County (Portland) had an 85% voter turnout.

http://www.co.multnomah.or.us/dbcs/elections/2004-11/turnout.shtml

Joe

No wonder I got that email saying that Barack is working on calling the people in Oregon right now instead of worrying about WV. Apparently, the voters now have ballots in hand, so they're trying to get people to decide while on the phone and there and put it into the mail.

Truth

Isn't that dangerous not to do it by postmark? Not doing so could open up charges of fraud.

I voted absentee in my state (mail-in) and because I am Independent, they didn't send me a ballot for the Democratic Primary even though it was open to walk-ins. I would have walked in, but I did that for John Kerry and they forced me to do it provisional. If he didn't win my state, I would have caused more of a stink. I've felt disenfranchised by my state. If it was winner take all for Clinton, it wouldn't have mattered. Wonder how many more felt this way?

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