West Virginia, Kentucky & Goalposts

The LA Times cites Tad Devine's point that if Senator Clinton were to drop out of the race and leave Senator Obama as the presumptive nominee, that he could still lose West Virginia and Kentucky.  Given that Senator Clinton leads by nearly 30 points, she's is very likely going to win these states.  Awkward, indeed.  But does it change anything?  Not really.

Senator Clinton will handily win West Virginia and Kentucky, but the delegate haul will amount to scoring a couple of field goals at a time when a couple of touchdowns are needed.

For better or for worse, the race is now about Superdelegates - because there just aren't enough pledged delegates left to make a major difference in the race.  And as of this morning, Senator Clinton needs 87% of the remaining Supers in order to claim the nomination.

Comments

[An American Watching Closely From Canada]

I think your analogy is particularly apt. However, a lot of what I'm reading this morning is mentioning the SDs reluctance in moving over to Obama's column as a result of the huge margins he faces in WV & KY (and obviously the voting constituency this represents).

Are the landslide percentages factoring into the SDs decisions? In answering my own question: I imagine so, but with a grain of salt given the math. Still, any insights from your sight would be much appreciated.

And thanks much for providing this site.

[Dave]

SO nice to have access to this blog. The point is old news here read that Hillary would stay in until after Kentucky here a while back. You have a news breaker here hope you keep this going through November.

The point is a valid one. You don't want the Nominee losing so close to the end of the race. This is why as long as lightning doesn't strike this race is over.

Time to tighten the old belt and come together for a strong run to the White House.

[LindaS]

I'm not going to look at any photos or TV images Tues. night and Wed. as I can't bear to see the gloating by the Clinton camp.

Said inevitable gloating (Wolfson said on Sun. they expect to win the nomination-hah!) is also why I'm starting to think: what's to stop them, after the primaries are done, from continuing with their spin that the supers don't actually vote until the convention and therefore they can be lobbied until then to switch their endorsement--and that Obama therefore will not be allowed by her camp to be the "presumptive nominee" in June?

[Joe]

What do you think of all the talk of Libertarian spoilers? For example:

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/shared-blogs/ajc/politicalinsider/entries/2008/05/12/bob_barr_jumps_into_the_presid.html

http://wwwwakeupamericans-spree.blogspot.com/2008/05/ron-paul-soldiers-plan-revolt-against.html

I somehow doubt they'll get anywhere, but they're Dr. Paul fans, so I'm sure they'll try SOMETHING.

[Nate]

Where do you see reluctance among super delegates? Since last Tuesday, he's gained 23....that's more than a drip, that's a current. (Clinton has gained .5 since then).

[Dave]

Have you ever noticed that a Clinton win means that the balloons are released, and the confetti will fly. This has happened ever time she wins a primary. Obama on the other hand is waiting not celebrating early. Watch for the party to start after Oregon.

This will be the first time that the Obama campaign will feel comfortable enough to find the end is in site.

The primaries have been important. Think, this is the first time a woman has run a competitive campaign for President. Women have a lot to be proud of so let them celebrate and hold no hard feeling over this.

We will soon be coming together to elect a President with two candidates on the ballot. If we lose this time women will lose a lot of their rights. We could very well lose the rights our forefathers gave us.

I myself will be celebrating with them as this has been a good run for us all. We will have a stronger representative running for us this year. Thank you Hillary!! I may not agree with her politics, but she has taken a lot of negatives away from the Republicans this fall.

The time has come that we bring this party back and move forward. There will be another woman running in the future and we as Democrats won't be afraid to back her. Until then there is strength in unity.

[Judy]

Maybe their reluctance has something to do with www.rezkowatch.com

[Tony in MI]

Reluctance?

The graph shows the rate of SDs turning to Obama is increasing.
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/02/superdelegate-history-tracker.html

For those who put their faith in the Gallup polls, the statistical tie has been broken:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107218/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Pulls-Ahead-Clinton-50-43.aspx