Further proving it's "Operation Crackpot"

Revisiting Myth #7...exit polls show that must Republicans voting for Democrats in the Indiana primaries are quite genuine with their votes.  Today's Washington Post looks into the crosstabs and supports this notion.  The sky is not falling, the end is not near and Rush Limbaugh is not influencing Democratic primary outcomes.

Numbers don't lie, folks:

More "Sincere" Crossover

Here's more data for the raging debate over GOP mischief in last night's Democratic primary in Indiana: On balance, network exit polls show Republican crossover voters expressing little other than a sincere preference for Clinton over Obama.

First, Clinton edged Obama in Indiana's open primary among self-identified Democrats, 52 to 48 percent. And removing all GOP-identifiers from the voter pool does not budge the overall result. Perhaps the focus on non-Democrats is misplaced.

But the topline numbers are so intriguing.

Republicans made up 10 percent of all Democratic voters in Indiana last night, their highest share of the electorate in any Democratic primary this year other than Mississippi. Not only did Clinton win Republicans in Indiana by eight percentage points, but about six in 10 of those who supported her in the primary said they would vote for McCain over Clinton in a hypothetical general election match-up. (Most Republicans voting for Obama said they would stick with him in the fall.)

A closer look, however, reveals that most Republicans for Clinton appear to genuinely prefer Clinton to Obama, which was the choice at hand. They opted to vote in one of the hottest elections in years, perhaps with an eye to giving themselves more appealing options in the fall.

About nine in 10 GOP Clinton voters said she would make a better commander in chief, and more than six in 10 said she would have a better shot at beating McCain. They were also more than twice as likely as other voters to prioritize an experienced candidate. And three-quarters of these voters said they would be satisfied with Clinton atop the Dem ticket, just 15 percent said so about Obama.

A narrow majority of Clinton Republicans did say that Clinton does not share their values, but more said so of Obama. All politics is comparative.

And looking at the Indiana exit poll numbers by race also seems to dampen any "Limbaugh effect." Overall, Clinton won the state's white voters by 20 percentage points. Republicans, 95 percent of those who voted Democratic yesterday were white, broke for her by eight points, but that was much narrower than her win among white Democrats: she outpaced Obama by nearly 2-1 among those voters.

Comments

[Nate]

The argument in this article is preposterous. It disclaims the Limbaugh effect because voters who voted for Clinton but have no intention of voting for her in the fall do genuinely prefer her to Obama. This is exactly what cross-party meddling is meant to accomplish. It can cause two things: 1) Pick the weaker candidate or 2) Pick the preferable candidate to "hedge your bets".

When 6 in 10 Republican voters for Clinton say they'll support McCain over Clinton, then you know that there was some Chaos at hand....even though they prefer Clinton to Obama, which is merely incidental to the project.

[David Buchanan]

Great post. And speaking of numbers not lying, I am increasingly concerned about the myth of the popular vote count.

One issue that both sides seem to be forgetting - The popular vote is based on those states that had primaries. However, look at the list of caucus states: Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota, Iowa, Nevada, Nebraska, Maine, and Wyoming (I did not include Texas because they have a primary and a caucus system,"The Texas Two Step"; I also did not include Washington, as they have a nonbinding primary).

So let's look at these caucus states:
Alaska - 75% of delegates to Obama
Colorado - 67% to Obama
Idaho - 79% to Obama
Nevada - 45% to Obama, 51% to Clinton
Nebraska - 68% to Obama
Maine - 59% to Obama
Wyoming - 61% to Obama.

So, if you want to use popular vote; take the turnout of Democrats from 2004 (or registered Democrats, take your pick), and multiply by these percentages and add to the popular vote.

If you do that, you will see that Obama far and away has surpassed Senator Clinton, even if you factor in the rule breakers in Florida and Michigan.

That's the math... and again, numbers don't lie.

[Matin]

Explain again how the fact that 6 in 10 Clinton republican voters would pick McCain over Clinton isn't a sign of Operation Chaos's effectiveness?

I know you rationalized it by saying that it only means they preferred Clinton to Obama, who were the only choices. Sure. But isn't that exactly what Limbaugh told them to do? He very directly told them to select Clinton over Obama in order to continue the divisive campaign. It seems fairly cut and dry here that data shows the effect.

I'm an Independent knows quite a few conservatives from TX who voted for Hillary in Tx with express purpose of extending the Dem primary. As someone who is very much anti-Clinton I spent countless hours trying to talk them out of it, to no avail. They either saw Clinton as the easier to beat GE opponent (this was pre-Wright) or they simply thought that the longer this went on, the more bloodied and weaker the eventual nominee would be. I can only assume the same behavior occurred in Indiana.

Imo, this very weakness that you guys have expressed here is the reason why you constantly lose the presidency. It seems the Clinton's are the only ones ruthless enough to get the job done. No wonder they bully so much of your party.

The fact is that as of now, because you guys didn't pull the plug when Obama had all but sealed it up (after Wisconsin), both sides bases have become way more entrenched and less likely to vote for the other. You've also wasted, time, money and energy fighting one another why the repubs prepared for the GE and get to learn what works in the increasingly negative dem primary. Of course, on the positive side, I believe the long primary lead to more registered voters but it remains to be seen if all the new voters will outweigh all of the negatives listed above.

I do know this for a fact, the republicans are so weak in the GE now considering Bush, the economy and the war that if you guys screw it up, it would be 100% due to shocking incompetence in the way candidates were selected and the primary run. I mean not seating Michigan and Florida at all and then allowing the trailing candidate to run around accusing the front runner of "disenfranchising" them? WTF? How about having the "inevitable" candidate being someone with such high negatives that over 50% of prospective voters don't even think she's trustworthy? What were you guys thinking?

[Bilbo]

I suspect the Operation Chaos theory is advanced mainly as a counter to the Hillary Crossover argument.

Yes, there are some Republican Vote Trolls. But, they don't have any meaningful impact.

But, at the same time including second choice votes for Hillary as part of her crossover appeal to advance her perceived electability is just as wrong in my view.

[Joe]

I admit, I don't really care any more why people voted that way. Limbaugh is an annoying loudmouthed idiot, and I thought that very strongly even when I was a Republican.

So, I guess, the real question is how to end this amicably? I admit that I'm sour thanks to the 'baggage' issue on Clinton as VP (too visible), but any other slot is just fine. Using Clinton "camp" people is just fine, too, whether in the VP slot or elsewhere.

Is there any way to end this peacefully at this point? What are the options for a resolution? That would seem to be the top priority.

[Michael James]

I disagree that the Limbaugh effect is a myth. The difficulty is quantifying it and confirming how big of a difference it makes.

Of course, all of the analysis of this relies on exit polling and if a voter is willing to engage in the kind of shenanigans that Limbaugh has been calling for, it has to make you wonder if they would lie to the exit poll taker as well. Someone with more time on their hands than I have should also look at the exit polling from the time period before McCain had the nomination locked up vs. after that time.

That said, we can try to come up with some more general parameters.

As Mr. Super pointed out in the original post, Republicans made up 10 percent of all Democratic voters in Indiana Tuesday.

The total number of votes in Indiana was 1,273,107 per the Indiana website:
http://www.in.gov/apps/sos/primary/sos_primary08?page=district&countyID=-1&partyID=1&officeID=36&districtID=937&districtshortviewID=937&candidate=

Ten percent of 1,273,107 works out to 127310.7 and Clinton won Republicans in Indiana by eight percentage points (54-46), which works out to (after rounding 54% * 127310.7) 68,748 Republican votes for Clinton.

Given an overall margin of victory of 14,487, it would mean that about 21% of the Republicans voting for Clinton had to be Operation Chaos operatives (or those of like mind who don’t listen to Limbaugh’s show) in order to swing the election to Clinton (i.e. 14,487 out of 68,748).

Granted, in running these numbers, I am assuming that Obama’s Republican support is genuine, but, if we do go ahead and assume that it is, would it be possible that 1 out of every five Republicans who voted for Clinton has no intention of voting Democratic in the fall? I think it is entirely possible, especially in a state that has been overwhelmingly Republican for a very long time.

[Chris]

I've got to agree with the other commentors, the fact that they generally like Clinton over Obama does not erase the fact that they will not support her in the general election. I can't imagine ever casting a primary vote for someone I didn't intend to go on to vote for in a general election. To me that flies in the face of democracy. And in this case those voters were largely responsible for giving Senator Clinton her win.

[Elizabeth W.]

I would love to be swayed that the Limbaugh effect is a myth, but I can't overlook the stated fact that 6 in 10 voted for Clinton knowing that there was no way they would vote for her against McCain. That could make the difference in the overall vote total.
As for the other statistics cited, we have to consider that anyone who would participate in something called Operation Chaos might not be completely truthful when answering exit poll questions.

[kylej]

Assuming that "Chaos" voters would answer an exit poll honestly, if at all is tenuous at best. I don't see how there is any real way to determine the Limbaugh effect other than to say if anything it tipped voters Hillary's way an unknown amount.

[Judy]

Good post - again, check out the gallup poll matching Obama's number with Kerry in 04 - where Kerry at 88% of the black vote.

I have come to the conclusion that this is all about the far left and the moderates.

That is why it is a very dangerous situation for the dems. I am one of the moderates who will not vote for Obama. Alot of talk about these dems leaving the democratic party and becoming Independents. I am going in that direction. It is not a threat or anti-Obama - it is merely a matter of belief and principle. I am sure the dems will be fine without my vote - 59 year white middle class female.

I cannot accept the new change - I will not vote for it. I love this country - I am in full agreement that our politicians are not perfect, but I cannot complain about my life or situation - which I give full credit to God and this wonderful country.

I don't approve of the war, I did not approve of the Vietnam war. But, let's walk very cautiously in the Middle East - it is very volatile - no place for the novice, junior senator from Illinois to be vetted.

[benjamin]

Besides the arguments cited above, isn't this analysis predicated on the idea these people TOLD THE TRUTH to the pollsters ? Considering what they are suspecting of doing, I would say it is hardly a safe assumption.

[benjamin]

PS: The fact 60% of Clinton voters say they would vote for McCain does not mean anything else but the fact her voters are bitter towards Obama.
However, the fact that 7% of her voters say they would be "dissatisfied" if she was the nominee is more interesting. Who votes for HRC even though they don't want her to be the nominee ? Mmmm. How about people just trying to prolong the primaries to help, I don't know, their Republican candidate ?

[Kasturba]

Dear Mr. Super,

Now that you have outed yourself, when do you plan to announce your support for O or C?

[OlderVoter]

Well, now that we know who you are, what are your thoughts on Ybarra's demand for money. I watched the video of the CA DNC meeting and there was some discussion by the panel, but I don't recall if you were on the panel or not.

[Sherry Lynn]

Regardless of that opinion piece you cited from the WAPO, I believe that it is absolutely a fact that the Oxycontin inhaler made an impact on the extremely close Indiana primary.

That piece is echoing the bitter Hillaryites on her site word-for-word in their state of denial in the "Operation Chaos" ordeal.

Then again, why wouldn't they want to dismiss that it made an effect? If you discount the number of Republicans who made it clear that they were ditto-heads following orders, we'd be chalking up another victory for Senator Obama.

If you can stomach tuning into Oxy-head for a portion of his program, jot down on a notepad every caller who phones in to report how their experience went as they switched over and how they immediately began the process of switching back. You will be BLOWN away at the number of ditto-heads who took part.

It still boggles the mind that President Bill Clinton even went on Rush Limbaugh's show after his sick scheme had started. BILL, WHAT WERE YOU THINKING !?!?!?!?!?!?!?

Aside from Oxy's apparent effect on the final numbers, how about the data that Bev Harris at Black Box Voting.Org has discovered on what happened in the final county?

If you haven't seen it, take a short field trip over there and you'll see evidence that Oxy wasn't the only help Mrs. Clinton had that night.

Were you really a Richardson supporter at one time? I ask because in my state, I worked for Governor Richardson until the day he dropped out.

But I'm proud of Senator Obama and I'm incredibly proud that Governor Richardson is backing him completely. I think they'd make a perfect team!!!

[Laura]

Mr. Super

You've given some exit poll information but haven't shown any analysis of how the numbers play out.

Here's an analysis on the Indiana exit poll data:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/06/exit-polls-limbaugh-effec_n_100488.html
"On a broader level, among the 17 percent of primary goers who said they would choose Sen. John McCain over Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical general election match-up, 41 percent of that group came from Clinton's own camp. In essence, roughly seven percent of Clinton support in Indiana (40 percent of 17 percent) said they would defect to the Republican should she end up the nominee"

"By contrast, if the general election is between Obama and McCain, 19 percent of the Indiana Democratic primary goers said they would support the Republican. But only 12 percent of that group (2.28 percent) would come from Obama's camp."

OK, so let's run the numbers.

7% of those who voted for Clinton in Indiana were Republicans who said they would vote for McCain in the GE. They had the choice to vote for McCain on primary day, but instead crossed over to vote for Clinton. They are Limbaugh's Operation Chaos voters and other mischief makers.

2.28% of those who voted for Obama in Indiana were Republicans who said they would vote for McCain in the GE. They are also mischief makers.

Clinton got 644,594 votes in Indiana. 7% of this number is 45,122.

Obama got 630,399 votes in Indiana. 2.28% of this number 14,373.

Three times as many Indiana Republicans who say they will vote for McCain in the general election voted in the Democratic primary in the hopes that that McCain will be matched against Clinton than against Obama. Again, these are not the Republican crossovers who support these Democrats, they say they will vote for McCain in the GE.

So Clinton had 45,122-14,373 = 30,748 more McCain-supporting mischief makers voting for her than Obama had voting for him.

Clinton beat Obama by 14,195 according to CNN's current tally.

Now we can quibble that the 30,748 isn't an exact number. But it's twice as high as the 14,195 vote margin that Clinton won by.

This simple analysis of the exit poll data suggests that Clinton might have lost Indiana if not for the crossover Republicans who said they voted for a Dem candidate even though they say they will vote for McCain in the general election.

Exit polls are imperfect, so it's a mistake to read too much into them. We really cannot say that they prove the Limbaugh effect is a myth, or that they disprove it. This is especially murky in a case like this one. Because any Republican who crossed over to vote for a Democrat in the primary but who intends to vote for McCain in the general election was violating Indiana state law, and they lied when they signed a form they were required to sign asserting otherwise.

[Truth]

Obama supporters (and even campaigners) that use Limbaugh as the reason for Clinton's wins are making Obama look bad. As Mr. Super calls it "Crackpot". Why am I so sure Limbaugh isn't having an effect. Because he called for the stoppage of McCain. How did that work out?

But don't worry, now Rush wants Obama elected because he is the weaker candidate. You can breathe a sigh of relief.

[CTPatriot]

In my estimation, Operation Chaos inflated Clinton's results by at least 1.5% in the PA primary, and I would expect to find a similar impact in every primary since OH/TX. The foundation for this belief is in exit polling data which revealed that some Republicans who voted for Clinton in the PA primary, WOULD NOT VOTE FOR HER IN THE GENERAL ELECTION if she was the Democratic candidate. This makes no sense other than in the context of Operation Chaos.

Here is what I published in my newsletter:

Exit polling from the Pennsylvania primary provided a window into the impact of Limbaugh's attempt to game the system. When PA Democratic primary voters were asked who they planned to vote for in November's general election if Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate and John McCain the Republican candidate, 10% (230,666*) of those Democrats responded that they would vote for John McCain. Most striking was the fact that 31% (71,506*) of those McCain Democrats indicated they would abandon Hillary Clinton, the candidate they had just voted for in the primary, in order to vote for John McCain in November's general election!!!

To be fair, when asked the same question except with Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee, 15% (346000*) of the voters said they would choose John McCain in November's general election. Of those McCain Democrats, 10% (34,600*) had just marked their primary ballot for Barack Obama and would abandon him for McCain.

Assuming that the 34,600 voters who would abandon Obama for McCain were dittoheads who didn't understand their Operation Chaos instructions, we'll reduce Clinton's dittohead number by that amount. The net result is a gain of nearly 37,000 votes for Hillary Clinton from people who had no intention whatsoever of voting for her in the general election. Now why else would anyone do that other than to game the system for the benefit of Republicans, especially knowing that Limbaugh's dittoheads had specifically been tasked to do just that?

[The Grand Panjandrum]

With all due respect this is hardly evidence, much less proof, that the "Limbaugh Effect" is a myth. With that said, until I see the actual data and analyze it myself I remain skeptical that it exist.

Nothing is proven, nothing is disproven by that particular article.

[TheRealFish]

I have a couple of questions:

What, from the past 26 years, leads you to believe Republicans would support *any* Clinton, regardless what they say to exit pollers? (I grew up in a family of Republicans in a quite conservative area of Michigan. Without a single exception I can think of, they all would rather pluck out their eyes with a toothpick than vote for a Clinton. They hate the very name.)

What would you expect those practicing mischief voting to say in exit polls? If they are there to create mischief the smart ones would tend to do so in words as well as deeds.

Just as I knew in my heart of hearts before we invaded Iraq there was no good reason to go there, I know they are meddling with votes and expectations.

I fear you and your compatriots will be persuaded by insubstantial assumptions of electability in favor of Ms. Clinton that will then completely evaporate in the fall.

[jcar]

By my calculations, of the Republicans who voted for Hillary, at least 40,000 of them are planning to vote McCain in November. Her margin of victory was only 14,000 votes. Texas turned out like this, too.

So we have Republicans voting for a Democrat they have no intention of supporting in the fall, and these votes are deciding the outcome of our primary races.

I'm sorry, but this totally stinks. Hillary knows it, too. It is so obvious that she is actively courting these Republicans votes. It is like a Lieberman strategy. She has been complimenting McCain, going on Bill O'Reilly's show talking like a Republican... throwing around statements about obliterating Iran. Bill Clinton went on Rush Limbaugh's show! To me, this feels like betrayal.

[Joe]

> But don't worry, now Rush wants Obama elected because he is the weaker candidate. You can breathe a sigh of relief.

Not much point in that now, is there? I figured he just wants to stir up trouble in debates exactly like this one.

Frankly, I don't think it's important any more. I think we all know he's a crackpot, so perhaps we can agree to disagree and move on.

Something more important would be figuring out a fair way to seat FL & MI. Obama can afford to be pretty generous, and IMHO he should be, but it might be better to figure that out after Hillary's upcoming wins; I believe she's due for a few rather soon.

[Truth]

For all those arguing Operation Chaos is having an effect on the primary, it is your burden to prove it exists. It is not Mr. Super's burden to prove it does not exist.

Let me explain away the polls you cite as evidence. Had I not been disenfranchised in the primary, I would have voted for Clinton, but would poll for Ron Paul in the General Election. I realize that Ron Paul doesn’t have a chance to win, so I want to make sure my second choice will be there in the General. But I do want to show there is support for Ron Paul (he had 0% chance of winning on the Republican ticket which to me is ironic). Would that be the Limbaugh effect?

Barack has hinted he would raise the capital gains tax higher than Clinton. I think that is everything that is wrong with politics. Extreme left / extreme right. My view is to bring the country back to productivity for all. Just as punishing the lower & middle class will cause economic collapse, punishing the upper class would damage the economy. Investment in the (American) economy is always good, so I think talking about cranking up the capital gains tax will do more harm than a “gas tax holiday” ever could.

But I digress. The capital gains tax could easily be a reason that a person could vote for Clinton over McCain, but not for Obama over McCain. Stop thinking on such a simple level like “Fire (McCain) bad.”

As you can tell, I am not a pure Democrat or Republican, just like most of America.

[Truth]

David Buchanan, the problem with your caucus analysis is this:
Texas Popular Vote Clinton 51% / Obama 47%
Texas Caucus Clinton 44% / Obama 56%
Undeniable proof that the caucus is not democratic and should be thrown out

The best reason to choose Hillary is here:
www.electoral-vote.com/

If Operation Chaos was real, we’d see that Obama v. McCain is better than Clinton v. McCain. The fact is Clinton is the better candidate according to the way we elect our president. Why choose out with a candidate that starts out weaker than the other? That would be a real Operation Chaos. Somebody else mentioned 538.com, which has not proven itself and even more important, not dividing EV’s according to a real election. I’ve never seen an EV of 273.9 in an actual election.

A vote for Obama is a vote for McCain. If this isn’t solved soon, I will run as an Independent.

Platform:

Tax Brackets (only single income shown)
Income 2008 Proposed
$8,025.00 10% 0% Lowered
$32,550.00 15% 0% Lowered
$78,850.00 25% 25% Same as Bush
$164,550.00 28% 31% Back to Clinton
$357,700.00 33% 36% Back to Clinton
No limit 35% 39.6% Back to Clinton

Tax Bracket effect
Income old % new % savings
38,000.00 13.8% 0.0% 4,481.25
50,000.00 16.8% 6.7% 4,481.25
75,000.00 19.7% 13.3% 4,481.25
100,000.00 21.6% 17.4% 4,010.25
150,000.00 23.8% 22.1% 2,510.25
200,000.00 25.7% 25.2% 1,010.25
250,000.00 27.2% 27.4% (489.75)
500,000.00 30.7% 32.7% (10,179.35)
1,000,000.00 32.8% 36.2% (33,179.35)
2,000,000.00 33.9% 37.9% (79,179.35)
10,000,000.00 34.8% 39.3% (447,179.35)

Social Security Tax taken from 6.2%/6.2% to 4.2%/4.2% with cap removed. It would only be a tax increase to those making over $150,000. $50,000 income saves $992 in social security deductions. Employer has less “labor burden” allowing extra hires. Social Security made solvent by removing the cap.

Iraq government given six month deadline to make major progress. Failure equals immediate troop withdrawal. Success equals troop draw down and encouragement for global community investment.

Money saved in Iraq (% of 2 billion per week) used to create high efficiency solar panels on every home and business and federal purchase order for electric vehicles & maglev trains.

Single payer unverisal health care based off Taiwan, Japan, Europe & Canada. Keeping the medical GDP % towards health care the same as it is now (more than the countries listed) will ensure American quality.

Obama, are you willing to incorporate some of this into your platform? It wouldn’t just solve the Democrat divide, but the 95% v. 5% population divide. I’m warning you now unless you want to lose in 2012.

[Truth]

Joe, I was being ironic about Rush backing Obama now. Most people know he is a joke and I think what few fans he had left after his intolerable teasing of Michael J. Fox.

My point was that the only power Rush has is that Democrats are talking about him. People like Axelrod and John Kerry are about to get a blowback by giving Rush relevance. The correct response was simply “Rush who?” Hillary showed how to handle it by stating “I think he has a crush on me.” Which is like poison to the small, low IQ following Rush still has left.

The Republican Party begging for Hillary I do think was reverse psychology, however. But to be honest, I don’t care what they think. I care what the swing states’ swing voters think.