Happy West Virginia Primary Day
If it's Tuesday, it must be election day!
Today voters take to the polls in the beautiful Mountaineer state (and it really is one of the prettiest places in America). Senator Clinton is expected to win big, and the number of Superdelegates she needs to win the nomination will depend on her overall margin of Victory tonight. Once again, here's the New York Times calculator to help on that front.
What Supers will be looking for tonight: Will Senator Clinton hold a 30-point margin of victory tonight? Will the swing in momentum keep some Clinton supporters home, or will a smaller margin of victory indicate that the polling in this state was never really that accurate to begin with? Waiting with bated breath...
Predictions anyone?
The size of the win don't mater. It is the size of the vote. A small turn out will be a vote for calling the primary done. Also it will indicate that Clinton isn't going to catch Obama in popular vote.
Posted by: Blame | May 13, 2008 at 07:21 AM
My WV finish line predict: 65% Hillary, 32% Obama, 3% Undecided.
Posted by: An American Watching Closely From Canada | May 13, 2008 at 08:17 AM
I predict that John Edwards (whose name is on the ballot) will get 3-4% of the vote.
I also predict there will be confetti and balloons at Clinton headquarters in Charleston.
Posted by: Dan | May 13, 2008 at 08:56 AM
Don't forget Edwards is still on the ballot there and could get as high as 5% or more. But there's little doubt it will be a huge margin for Clinton, with her margin being at least 30 points, possibly much higher.
Posted by: Steve | May 13, 2008 at 09:12 AM
I'll take a stab, Hillary by 25%. Lower turnout than expected.
Posted by: Bilbo | May 13, 2008 at 09:36 AM
listening to a radio station in West Virginia I am hearing that women are turning out for Hillary. They are mostly saying if this was a race the decision of who to vote for would of been much harder. Many who are for Obama are voting for a woman although they will vote for either one in November.
Hard to say that popular vote matters as only 30 to 40 percent have been showing up to vote in the primaries. Yes I feel the balloons will fly and confetti will fall.
May I say congrats to you Hillary....
Posted by: Dave | May 13, 2008 at 12:24 PM
My prediction? Everyone is SHOCKED by a surprise win.
Then we find out they used Diebold voting machines and everybody starts wondering how Bush managed to win a Democratic primary with 435% of the vote...
Posted by: Joe | May 13, 2008 at 03:49 PM
Hillary will win big. The women vote is a major block and more important than the media realizes. Also, there are a lot of questions coming out on Obama. It's not over.
"US Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald does not make a habit of destroying pubic officials by listing them in indictments for no reason and the only two political candidates identified as receiving campaign money from Operation Board Games kickback schemes are Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich and the US Senator from Illinois, Barack Obama."
http://www.opednews.com/articles/1/genera_evelyn_p_080513_curtain_time_for_bar.htm
Posted by: Elsa Gonzales | May 13, 2008 at 05:10 PM
Mr. Super, what are the most important considerations for a super delegate for deciding WHEN to declare?
It seems like quite a few have been making up their minds recently. What would it take to 'open the floodgates'? At best, it looks like the slope on the graph of undeclared supers has gotten a bit steeper, but it's not exactly in freefall.
Posted by: Joe | May 13, 2008 at 06:43 PM
It's a happy day after all! We can congratulate our newest Senator, Travis Childers, of MS-01. That's three seats flipped and counting...
Posted by: Sarah | May 13, 2008 at 08:34 PM
Elsa may I point out to you this is a friendly site. We try not to harpoon the candidates. Before posting links verify they are true. There are no connections that state Fitzgerald is going to press charges against Obama. As a matter of fact the trial is coming to an end and there is no there there.
Posted by: Dave | May 13, 2008 at 09:21 PM
The WV primary is basically symbolic at this point. It looks like Hillary will close the gap by about 9 delegates, so that's nothing.
What does have me wondering is whether Edwards will endorse now? It seems to me like he won't. If he wanted to endorse Hillary, the time for that was a long time ago. If he was worried which way his state would vote, that's been known for ages. If he wanted to vote for Obama? Well... I can see that being hard for him after the way his state voted.
But who knows? He could always point to the divisions found in the exit polls and say that's time to end the matter (though he still has to answer to the WV voters...).
Personally, I see him staying officially neutral, but who knows?
Posted by: Joe | May 13, 2008 at 10:23 PM
Oops! Did I make a mistake and type Sen. instead of Rep.? Sorry about that - but congrats to Childers all the same!
Posted by: Sarah | May 13, 2008 at 10:25 PM