The "Choose-Your-Own Adventure Primary"

From today's Raleigh News & Observer:

If Clinton wins Indiana and Obama North Carolina:

Nothing changes. Both candidates were expected to win those states, both will claim victory in their own ways, and the national press moves on to West Virginia, Kentucky and Oregon. Clinton is still an outside chance for the nomination.

If Clinton wins Indiana and North Carolina:

A game-changer. Clinton argues she is the only candidate who is electable, while some superdelegates begin to worry that the damage from Rev. Jeremiah Wright, etc., is too great. Obama is red-faced before thousands at Reynolds Coliseum.

If Obama wins Indiana and North Carolina:

Less of a game-changer. Obama argues he has won over the elusive blue-collar vote in a state favored for Clinton while hanging on to college students and black voters. Clinton rebuts that Indiana has not gone for a Democrat since 1964 so it doesn't really count.

If Obama wins Indiana and Clinton North Carolina:

Mass confusion. Both campaigns charter last-minute flights to the other state. Dan Rather comes out of retirement to coin a metaphor for the situation involving corn cakes and griddles but no one understands what he's talking about.

If Mike Gravel wins anywhere:

Hysteria. Reporters wander around in a daze. Pollsters jump out second-story windows. Bloggers say they saw it coming all along. Plagues of locusts swarm the earth. A third of Democratic voters turn red. Mike Munger reveals he is the anti-Christ.

Comments

[Another Mike]

Beware the Gravelanche!

[Bilbo]

If Clinton wins Indiana and North Carolina:

I don't see this changing the game. Maybe there is a little more political cover for undeclared superdelegates commited to Clinton. Maybe some even change their endorsement to Clinton. But, they are left with the same difficult decision. Either way general election chances are weakened and the Democratic party is hurt, but overturning the delegate count will be far more damaging.

If Obama wins Indiana and North Carolina:

It is game over. Hillary is dependent on perception at this point and there is no way she can prevent the media narrative from shifting to when she will concede.

That being said, I suspect she'll win Indiana by 4% or less and Obama will win NC by about 9%. If that holds I fully expect the race will continue, but the pace of endorsements will pickup and continue to favor Obama. Her chances will be greatly reduced.

[TMo]

Gravelter Skelter!

[Kasturba]

Love the post. Hope Gravel wins! The media has been hysterical about so many minor issues, it would be great to see them in true paroxysms! :)

[Bill R.]

I am sure the supers know about Operation Chaos. ( I don't buy your dismissal, Mr. Super) And back before the TX primary Bill Clinton even went on the Rush show. It's pretty clear there's a marriage of convenience with the ditto heads and the Clintons. I imagine that doesn't play well at all, and is one reason why the supers continue and will continue to drift toward Obama. I suspect this threat of the nuclear option doesn't play well either. It's like.. "Give me the nomination or I will kill all of you, and myself!"

[Bill R.]

I'm betting on the scenario of a small Clinton victory in Indiana and large Obama victory in NC.
I don't think your super club is going to overturn the pledged delegate victory by Obama that will be confirmed in my state, Oregon. Here's why,
from Jedreport:

* He's got 1.5 million individual contributors...and we're still in the primary.
* He has endured an assault from the GOP, his Democratic opponent, and the MSM -- and he is still winning the nomination battled.
* He's locked up the democratically selected pledged delegate victory (even if you include Mich. and Fla.)
* The only way his opponent can win is if 80% of SDs choose to overturn the vote.
* He's working to unite the Democratic Party to take on John McCain.
* He is expanding the electoral map.
* He respects the American people enough to tell the truth.
* He is the future.
- and I will add one more element. Overturning the Pledged Delegate result will make Clinton unelectable because of the mass defection that will result, it will turn the Dem. party into a permanent minority party when the separation by AAs and other groups becomes a permanent realignment. (James Clyburn wasn't just whistling dixiecrat..)

Now, superdelegates, we need you to make a decision -- for the good of the party and for the good of your country.

[LindaS]

Huzzah! Well said, Bill R.

[Joe]

You know the "Turning Japanese" song? I'm thinking it should be rewritten to "Turning Republican" and played during Clinton rallies with her sudden love for ABC, Fox and Limbaugh...

Anyhow, when Clinton compared herself to Eight Belles the other day, I found it oddly appropriate. Came in second place to Big Brown, collapsed after the race revealed she'd broken two legs, and was put down immediately after.

If, somehow, Obama were to pull off double wins (unlikely, because I only expect to see him win one), I can only think that it will get more play in the media.

And then maybe we can move on. Obama has a stronger plank to attack McCain right now. The gas tax + "I don't understand the economy" is one GREAT route. The notion of an Iran war (who wants to pay for THAT?) is another.

Two big issues. The two *most important* issues to most voters. And Obama has a strong avenue of attack, while Hillary has taken the same approach as McCain on both of them.

That's not something you can just throw away. What's she going to do in the general election? Claim to be more Republican than McCain? Oddly enough, I can't deny that that strategy might actually work, because McCain is local and I know how the local Republicans feel about him...

[TheSteve]

Best post I read all day, Mr. Super. Got my morning started right - just wanted to say thanks. Here's to frogs falling from the sky.

[Danielle Lor]

Lol. Mike Gravel.

[Marty]

Thanks for the insights.... I'd imagine the role of superdelegate is more interesting this election than anybody ever expected....

I liked Clinton as a politician based on most of her actions as a senator, but her refusal to back down even when she is effectively mathematically eliminated disturbs me almost as much as the negative nature of her campaign against Obama.

(by the way... isnt McCain the real enemy here?)

I simply dont understand how a democrat in good conscience can vote for her in any of the remaining primaries... you dont even need to be a number cruncher to realize that right now every vote for her is a vote to extend the nonsense and keep us away from finally getting down to business... exposing the farce that is John McCain, Mr. Conservative "only a maverick because I say I am"

Please... enough with this nonsense about florida and michigan. If Obama was on the ballot and campaigned in both he would have taken at least a reasonable share of those delegates... enough to put him over the top by any account. How blindly greedy is Senator Clinton that she can even attempt to claim all of the delegates from those states as hers?

My greatest wish is that Hillary Clinton pack it up and go back to the important and respected work she's been doing in the senate as a true democratic leader. (I say that with no sarcasm)

Too bad its starting to look like she is so selfishly blind that nothing will deter her from attempting to destroy Obama, while John McCain skates on to his term as president... Bush III, the senile years.