North Carolina Update #1

Even though it is the 10th largest state in the nation, voters in North Carolina have never cast more than one million ballots in any primary election.  They will surpass that number today.  Last weekend marked the conclusion of an early vote period which saw nearly half of a million ballots cast.

By way of comparison, the Carolina early vote in 2008 surpasses the total turnout of the 2004 primary election, as well as the early vote turnout for the 2004 and 2006 general elections.  This high turnout is in line with what we've seen in other states this year, but has also been sparked by a competitive gubernatorial primary in both parties.

UPDATE 11:35 AM Eastern: turnout in the East has spiked considerably, now looking at heavy African American turnout and light to moderate White voter turnout.

Participating continues to be very heavy in Charlotte, though the mayor is running for Governor on the Republican side. Thus this may not necessarily indicate Democratic turnout that is drastically higher than anywhere else, but rather that Republicans are actually turning out in high numbers in this region.

Comments

[Shock Mouse]

What do you mean by heavy AA turnout? A particular percentage you can predict? And are you saying heavy relative to the proportion of the black vote in the general electorate, or the black vote as a proportion of the Democratic?

A lot of polls kept getting NC wrong because they estimated black turnout proportional to their population in the state as a whole.

[Mr Super]

Heavy turnout in relation to all Democratic voters only. Precincts with heavy African American (AA) registration are seeing large numbers of participants so far.

[J S]

Didn't we hear the same out of Philadelphia, about heavy AA voting early? I wonder if this is a case of efficiency by Obama GOTV efforts - that they get their targeted voters out of the way early.. but it may not hold up throughout the day.

Another possibility is that typically AA participation is greater than their census percentage, but the great interest in this primary could be drawing out historic participation by all demographics, actually lowering the AA effect over a typical primary.

Personally, I'd take this trend holding up all day long ;)

[Mr Super]

Polling has shown that all communities have a high motivation to participate in this election, so the increase in AA voting should rise with that of other communities. The share of the AA vote in a Democratic primary in North Carolina is roughly 33%, heightened motivation could push that up but the share of the overall Democratic primary vote is still likely to remain in the 30's.

[Joe]

Heavy AA turnout? I'm going to call this early as a win for Obama. The Rev. Wright reopening probably will help drive turnout.

Of course, you never know. And to be fair, I'm guessing Indiana will go for Clinton, but not by a lot.