The Memorial Day Marker

Back on topic here, I want to revisit something that I first took a guess at in March, that this nomination battle would be resolved by Memorial Day.  Things have changed quite a bit in the past 48 hours, made more evident by today's wave of endorsements for Senator Obama.  This will likely wrap-up sooner than that.

In April, Jed Report came up with the idea that this will be done by the May 20th Oregon primary, days before Memorial Day, when Senator Obama looks to claim a majority of pledged delegates.  Adding to this notion, Members of Congress will be heading home for recess from May 23rd - 30th.  This is not something they want dangling over their heads when they return home.

Both of these ideas are likely moot now.

Even though Senator Clinton is likey to win in West Virginia on Tuesday, there just aren't enough delegates left to make-up the difference in the race.  As of this posting, the New York Times delegate calculator says the Senator Clinton needs 81% of the available delegates remaining Superdelegates left to win the nomination.  She may stay in through West Virginia for one more win, then bow out on Wednesday.  Guess we'll see.

Have a good weekend.

Comments

[Nate]

Hey,

Great news. Thanks for this site....I've checked in daily (usually a few times) for the past few weeks and I appreciate your work.

Cheers.

[LindaS]

And yet, more bluster, belligerence and spin from her and her campaign, even in the last 48 hours; not to mention die-hard supers still limping in to endorse her....It will be a huge relief if Wed. is the day--but given the way she's behaved to date, I just don't see it--she will most likely just continue to crow after a win in WV. The majority of pundits this week have been talking about her need to find a graceful exit, but she's not giving any indication of it! I find it sickening that she's continuing to take the low road and continuing to damage the party.

[Sarah]

FEC filings are due on May 20th. I expect that will bring things to an abrupt end if Senator Clinton hasn't bowed out before then.

[Kasturba]

Mr Super.,

I have a question unrelated to supers but related to campaign finance. Hope you can (and choose to) answer it.

There has been a lot of talk about Obama raising money to pay off Clinton's $25 million campaign debts (see huffpo). Can you tell me why she can't use all that money she had that was set aside for the general election to get out of her primary debt? Does campaign finance law prevent it? Does the money go back to donors? I always thought her primary overspending was backed by the idea that she could always recover money from her general election account. If that is not the case, the debt is even more irresponsible than I first thought it was.

Thank you for any response you have.

[Chris O.]

No way she bows out after WV. The next week, maybe, because that would give another win plus a loss plus Obama would have the majority of pledged delegates. But honestly, I don't see her completely giving it up until all the contests are done.

[LindaS]

I've seen two people over the last week who supposedly know her really well say "she'll know the right time to drop out", and "she doesn't want to damage the party". But the time to drop out was last week and she's been damaging the party for weeks....

I expect, though, that party leaders will be putting further pressure on her next week--I can't believe how long this has gone on, and the cowardice, really, of those who should be having some influence over whether she stays or goes.

[Jeff]

Mr. Super,

It's people like you who are enabling her further destruction of our party. You underestimate her. She will keep going, and going, and going, until she is elected president--and she doesn't care about the party or anyone else.

If that means taking her campaign to Denver and beyond and doing whatever she can to elect McCain this year, she will. In fact, she has shown every sign of going down that path.

This party has one task right now: Forcing the Clintons out of politics once and for all. After that task is done, we can turn our attention to John McCain. If we don't finish that task, we will lose this election. Simple as that.

[Mr Super]

Jeff: I've already given my vote to Obama, I'm not sure what else one person can do that would keep her from campaigning? DNC members alone don't have the sway to convince a candidate to drop out of the race for President.

[basil]

I think Hillary is hoping that big wins in KY, WV, and maybe Puerto Rico will change the atmospherics and sway some of the SD's.

But worse, I fear that her operatives are frantically scrambling to find some dirt on Obama that will turn the whole thing around. Maybe a video of Obama having sex with Pastor Wright or a goat or something of that nature. She's hanging around for the purpose of buying time to trash him.

If the shoe was on the other foot, I have no doubt that Obama would graciously bow out and do what's best for the Democratic Party.

[snowbird42]

Obama would have bowed out long ago. When the math didnt work.
The people on the Hillary sites are doing their best to find dirt on Obama. They say they have it but I wonder when their threats to his safety become dangerous.
Thanks for this site. One of my favorites.

[LindaS]

Hi Mr. Super,
I really appreciate this blog and the fact that you've endorsed Obama. I, for one, don't blame you as an individual super. My beef is for the way the system is set up such that it's turning out to be a free-for-all at the end here and there's no organization within the DNC for dealing with this destructive situation.

[LindaS]

Bob Herbert's column in today's NYTimes sums it up nicely:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/10/opinion/10herbert.html?em&ex=1210564800&en=685d71d85e88ab79&ei=5087%0A

[Nate]

Jeff,

LEAVE MR. SUPER ALONE!!!! All he does, is post a blog, that gives us informaiton, and all you can do is moan like he has the power to stop the Clinton campaign. LEAVE HIM ALONE!!!

hehe

[Jeff]

Sorry guys, let me clarify my earlier comments.

I'm very glad Mr Super has endorsed Obama. Although I wish he'd done so sooner, he had a US Senate race to tend to first in his professional life.

I'm not very glad Mr Super and other pundits make pronouncements like "Clinton will be out by next Wednesday" or "perhaps Clinton is searching for a dignified exit." There's nothing dignified about her ongoing George Wallace tour, or about her continued pronouncements that "hard-working people" are white and thus won't ever support Obama. None of her behavior points to an exit anytime soon.

Clinton's delegate math has been illegitimate well before this past Tuesday, and it will continue to be for the rest of this cycle. To save their party, DNC members must go further than endorsing Obama: They must publicly repudiate Hillary for her destructive acts. They must point out how inconsistent Hillary's populist appeals are with her past support of NAFTA and tenure on the board of Wal-Mart, for instance.

Obama, struggling to define himself as a general election campaign begins, cannot afford to go negative on Hillary right now. But party members ought to because Hillary is threatening to take their party hostage.

[Kevin Costello]

The "81% of the remaining delegates" you quote isn't correct...what the NY Times delegate counter gives is that if the remaining pledged delegates split the same way they have so far (53-47 Obama), then Clinton will need 81% of the superdelegates.

To see the proportion Clinton needs to win, you need to adjust the calculator so that the delegates from the remaining primaries are awarded in the same proportion as the superdelegates. Right now that's 65% needed for Clinton (it was between 59 and 60% immediately before North Carolina/Indiana).

[Truth]

You are one angry dude, Jeff (my friend).

Despite his cape, Ed could have easily been a friend I went to school with or worked with the other day. Treat peers as friends and create your own destiny. I will be fine even if McCain is elected as I progressed under both Clinton and Bush Nobody is pulling your strings.

My life is all that I've known
And it's all that keeps me here
My time is all that I own
So I won't let it slip away...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbMXPsmyAiI

[Blame (err I hope the real one)]

I just had an Idea for Michigan and Florida.
The big problem is that the voters havn't been efectivly consulted in Florida, and not at all in Michigan. Any solution that doesn't demonstratably reflect their views won't be acceptable to them - and we need them in november.

Why not replace all the Pledged Delegates with registered democrats chosen by lottery? You then send them to the convention as Super Delegates.

[Lynne B]

We don't really know what goes on behind the scenes- it could be that she is staying in for W VA and Kentucky because it will be easier for Obama to suffer a loss in those states with her on the ticket, rather than lose them if he is running unopposed. I would not be surprised if there is some kind of 'agreement' that this will end after Obama's almost certain win in Oregon, along with some kind of quid pro quo with a promise of a cabinet position or supreme court justice spot for HRC