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A Summer Break for the Student Vote?

If there's any surprise that has stood out among a year of surprises, it's been the mobilization of student voters around the country.  Compared to previous years, the turnout has been impressive.

The remaining big states on the calendar seem like a Division I-A college football schedule: West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, then you get South Dakota in there for your early season easy win.  One of the first things a political organizer does when they hit the ground for a campaign is look at the available volunteer pool - and students are a big part of that.  So a look at the academic calendar of the local university is required reading.  Here's what we find in these states:

Of the remaining states, all of the major public institutions will be out of session by the time the state holds a primary - except for Oregon. 

West Virginia University officially let out last week, both the University of Kentucky and the University of Louisville are in Summer break, and South Dakota is done for the academic year.  Among major public institutions, seems like only the Oregon schools will be in session when the primaries come to town.

This didn't seem to be a problem earlier this year when Iowa students returned to campus in order to vote on January 3rd, but that was also in the middle of the semester.  In other words, students still had their dorm and campus area housing.  At this point, many students will have moved for the summer which means they may no longer live where they are registered to vote. 

Politico received a tip yesterday from a lawyer who thinks that certain election rule books in West Virginia outline stricter standards than necessary pertaining to required ID, and that such strict rules could disproportionately affect students who may hold ID's from other areas.

Andrew Switcheroo

Joe Andrew, who formerly served as DNC Chairman (and Indiana Democratic Party Chairman before that) has switched his endorsement from Senator Clinton to Senator Obama.

The recent Indiana endorsements might not be enough deliver a win, but they are important in a larger sense.  Because due to proportional delegate allocation, winning isn't as important as closing gaps. 

More importantly, this signals momentum nationwide.  It's clear that there is a domino effect, in that endorsements from Supers are encouraging other Supers to come out and declare.

It is likely that this trickle of endorsements will continue and that this will end by Memorial Day.

 

Baron Hill

Indiana Congressman Baron Hill's endorsement of Barack Obama is surprising, not because of who the Congressman backed, but in that he backed anyone at all.  As a Freshman member of the House, he seems to have more to lose than gain by picking a side.  In doing so, one might think that he risks alienating half of a political base that he will need in order to overcome strong Republican opposition in the fall.

In the political world, Indiana's southern most congressional district is known as "The Bloody 9th" because it is a swing seat that boots incumbents about as often as it elects them.  Baron Hill was first elected in 1998, lost in 2004, and was elected again in 2006 - with 50% of the vote.

This is larger than an endorsement - it's an important signal that even Supers who might otherwise see political risk are starting to find comfort in picking sides.  And if Wednesday's list of new endorsements is setting a pace, than we could be looking at this process ending sooner rather than later.

Whoops - Montana Super Can't Endorse

Correction: No, not that Super - the other Super.  Over the weekend the Washington Post reported on a Super endorsement out of Montana for Barack Obama.  But another Super from the same state intending to endorse Obama now learns that, as a Party Chair or Vice Chair, she cannot endorse in a contested primary as Big Sky Country rules won't allow for it.  So while she's not in the committed column, it should be safe to put an asterisk next to her name on the undeclared list.  Story in the New York Times.

Evidence that Prolonged Primary Season is Good?

Pennsylvania busts the 4 million mark in Democratic registration, first political Party ever to reach that mark in that state.  Maybe there is some merit to a prolonged primary season.  But then again, people can still register for a general election, too.

Let the Electoral College Decide

Indiana Senator Evan Bayh suggests Superdelegates use electoral college math as a gauge in selecting a nominee.  When looking at the electoral vote value of states won by each, that Clinton currently leads Obama 219 to 202.

All things being equal, factoring out states in which Democrats will not be competitive in during the fall and the math is Clinton 157 and Obama 150. I'm guessing that the 7 electoral vote margin was not the impact Bayh was looking for.

Makes for an interesting study, though.  Figure that solid blue states will remain so for either Democrat, and then look at states which have swung both Democrat and Republican over the past four elections.

In this scenario, Obama carries 51 swing electoral votes (CO, GA, IA, LA, MO) to Clinton's 50 (AZ, AR, NV, NH, NM, OH).  It's unlikely that Louisiana will swing Democratic (so -9 for Obama), and it's probably safe to say McCain carries his home state (-10 for Clinton) which puts the two candidates in a pickle: the spread between them is only 2 electoral votes...and it's in Obama's favor.