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Supers Who Are Still Undeclared

A while back, I suggested that there are roughly 100 Supers (or 40% of the available Supers at that time) which will never endorse.  Interestingly enough, even with the nomination wrapped-up, we see that about 100 Supers remain undeclared even today, June 9th.

This reinforces the notion that many Supers had more to lose than gain by making an endorsement.  Because now, when there is seemingly little liability in making a declaration, we still see a significant number of Supers staying out of it.  The breakdown of undeclared Supers is about evenly divided between elected official vs. party official.

Some might think that these Supers are "not performing their duties."  The bottom line is that Supers didn't ask to be so super, and in fact are all elected to other positions which are, frankly, more important than being a Superdelegate. 

And for those conspiracy theorists out there: don't worry, there aren't enough undeclareds out there to make a difference in the delegate math should they all go against FPBO.  Just as there weren't enough from Florida and Michigan to make a difference even if those delegations were seated 100%.  Besides, Clinton is now officially a Superdelegate for Obama.

Where the Uncommitteds Are

Heading into Memorial Day weekend, there are 178.5 remaining uncommitted Supers (this according to the New York Times as their sorting mechanism is very convenient).

The breakdown is: 101.5 DNC Members,  49 Members of Congress (9 are House Freshmen), 17 Senators, 6 Governors and 5 add ons.

A few weeks ago, I attempted to make predictions as to where the Supers would go moving forward.  I mentioned that all DNC members were up for grabs, and since then they have actually had the most movement.  Only 12 members of Congress have declared, and surprisingly an additional 9 House freshmen have made declarations.  Only 2 Senators and 1 Governor have declared since April 24th.

The remaining members are either members of the Pelosi Club, and may be waiting for the primaries to formally end before making public declarations.  Or, they may be inclined to never make an endorsement which means the nomination will be decided without them.

Either way, the pool of uncommitted Superdelegates is shrinking and the ability to prolong or end this nomination rests solely with these individuals.  And According to the New York Times delegate calculator, Senator Clinton needs 94% of the remaining Superdelegates to win the nomination.  Which means she needs 168 Supers to win the nomination (alright, it's actually 167.79 since that 1/2 vote makes the math all funny in there).

"Rubberstampers"

Also known as, "The Pelosi Club."  This is the group of Superdelegates who have at one point in this election process said that they would be endorsing the candidate leading among the pledged delegates.  As of Tuesday, this will be Senator Obama.  But it will be interesting to see how many refrain from endorsing out of respect to Senator Clinton, and what her actions will be following tomorrow's primary results.

Bring on the Supers

As I've stated before, I expect to see quite a bit of movement on Superdelegates in the next two weeks.  If this gets wrapped-up before Memorial Day - it's good news for Senator Obama.  If it extends to June 4th - it's good news for Senator Clinton.

There are now more unpledged Superdelegates left than there are pledged delegates.  Senator Clinton's win in Indiana was symbolic in that it is still a victory.  However, the net delegate gain on the night went to Senator Obama since North Carolina has more delegates - and his wider margin of victory netted him a larger percentage of delegates.  The overall math doesn't look good for Clinton, either.

I've stated before that most Supers do not revel in the notion of putting one candidate over the top.  Having said that, Kos recommends waiting two weeks until Oregon.

Note: Congressional recess is Memorial Day week, which is right after Oregon.  Unless Senator Clinton has enough momentum generated from potential wins in West Virginia and Kentucky, many undeclared Members of Congress will be dealing with a looming issue of a presidential nomination when heading to their home districts.  Not a prospect to revel in.

Finally: Obama memo on Superdelegates here.

Latino Superdelegates

The fastest growing segment of the American electorate are Latinos.  Republicans have done little to endear themselves to this growing bloc of voters in recent years, but John McCain comes from a Southwestern state where he is known among Hispanic audiences.  And his military credentials may also resonate in the community, so this will be a very competitive constituency for both parties.

I'm told there are roughly 64 Hispanic Superdelegates.  Currently the endorsement breakdown is Senator Clinton 39, Senator Obama 14, Uncommitted 11.  The last primary held with a notably sized Hispanic voting population was Texas.  Since that timetotal gains among Latinos are Obama 8, Clinton 4.

Happy Cinco de Mayo.

EDIT: Politico posts an article today which states that if Florida were to be competitive, it could be due to the increase in the registration of Hispanic Democrats - which now outnumber Hispanic Republicans.

Congressional Supers Deciding

Politico says that Obama has an edge on Congressional Supers.  Further supporting the notion that there are no undecided Superdelegates, only undeclared ones.

"While more than 80 Democrats in the House and Senate have yet to state their preferences in the race for the Democratic nomination, sources said Tuesday that most of them have already made up their minds and have told the campaigns where they stand."

UPDATE: Confirmed with another Capitol Hill source that while some members of Congress have held their own opinions for some time, many of these preferences are just now being relayed to the presidential campaigns.

Why do Supers wait?

Several good reference tools to determine how many undeclared Supers there are.  Politico has a good tracker (which lists 241), as does DemConWatch (304).  I've used the NY Times tracker (226) quite a bit though it appears, ironically enough, that one is the most liberal of all.

By whichever guide you use, there are roughly 130 Superdelegates who will not endorse without some sort of sea-change in the election.  This means that, depending on the Super tracker you use, the number of undeclareds available to endorse prior to that time is a paltry amount, somewhere in the range between 96-174.

On a number of occasions, I've referred to my March 19th post to outline two reasons why Supers wait to endorse.  But there is another element as to why Supers wait.

The reason that 130 are unlikely to endorse is because they are in positions which make it difficult for them to do so - endorsing could get in the way of them doing their jobs.  They may be Party leaders who must work with voters, activists and and both presidential campaigns without being partial to a candidate, or they are people who work for organizations and making an endorsement could imply that said organization has made the endorsement.  Or, they work for non-presidential candidates and picking a side could alienate a bloc of voters for said candidate in that race.

These are all predicaments that pose real impediments for Supers at work.  Perhaps this subtext is helpful in understanding why some Supers must wait.

The Supers are Listening

As I've mentioned before, we Supers take our responsibility quite seriously.  The main question we grapple with: endorse now or after the final primary?  That's not an easy question to answer, though the public mood is clearly divided between voters in states which held primaries and those in states which have not.  Those who have voted are eager for Supers to endorse now, those who have not voted are not.

Two articles offer a good glimpse into this predicament.  The LA Times writes about views of Supers, outlining the pros and cons of a prolonged primary season.

The New York Times picked up a gem of quote from Congressman David Price stating that Supers, "...should intervene only in extraordinary circumstances that do not now exist."  The New York Times then wrote "The biggest well of superdelegates is in Congress" which is factually incorrect: the biggest well of Superdelegates consists of members of the Democratic National Committee.

Super Predictions

I came across this site last week which makes predictions as to which way the uncommitted Superdelegates will vote.  EDIT: Then there was this post on Kos, which says that Senator Obama only needs 43 undeclared Supers.

There's no way to tell if either are accurate, but they are both interesting.  And while I cannot pretend to know which way Supers will vote, I do know most of these people personally and I can offer some insight as to where I think each currently stand.  The list I am working from is the NY Times delegate tracker for it's easy sorting mechanism, however I recommend people fact-check everything at DemConWatch.  So here goes:

Governors (7):  All Pelosi Club members, though Kentucky's Steve Beshear could conceivably endorse Senator Clinton, and North Carolina's Mike Easley could endorse Senator Obama.

US Senators (19): As colleagues in the Senate, it's feasible that all could be Pelosi Club members.

Undeclared House Freshmen (18): All Pelosi Club.  there 40 freshmen in the class of 2006, the 18 who have not endorsed look to be facing tough re-elects and don't want to risk splitting their base by picking a side.  It's not what they were elected to do.

House members (52): Of the remaining House members, most are Pelosi Club.  There are a few who may endorse prior to their state's primary, that's a total of nine members when you take out the Freshmen who were referenced above.

DNC Members (126): Virtually all up for grabs, save for a few Party luminaries.

I honestly believe that the peacemakers in all of this could be Jimmy Carter, who though he was not a popular president has since become the most popular ex-president, and the award-winning and Al Gore.

It Feels Like We've Been Here Before...

The main talk among Supers today is not who to endorse, but when to endorse.  Because as much as we want this to be over, there is also a principled position that the voters in these remaining states deserve to have their voices heard.

More talk of a merged ticket in the NY Times with some good pros and cons on the matter.  And TAPPED acknowledges that both of these candidates are still turning out voters in record numbers.  According to the PA Secretary of State website, the margin is in precisely 9.2% for Senator Clinton giving her a lead of 208,024 votes.

Marc Ambinder says that the win in PA limits the Clinton campaign's financial resources.  But as I mentioned earlier, John McCain played that same gamble in Florida back in January and it paid off for him.  Though clearly the dynamics of this race are different.