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Friday Veepstakes - the MIND READING edition!

Future President Barack Obama (FPBO) has formed a Vice Presidential search committee, headed by Jim Johnson, who also preformed the same task for John Kerry in 2004.

Because there is so much of the unknown involved here, the pundits and blogs are going to have plenty to speculate over during the next two months.  Voters thirst for change, Obama as the first mixed-race candidate, McCain as the oldest...who knows where this will go.  And it's the first time since 1988 that BOTH parties are selecting running mates at the same time!  Merry Christmas you pundits!

Because John Edwards was no more able to save John Kerry's ticket in 2004 than Dan Quayle was to potentially sinking the first George Bush ticket in 1988, the addition of a running mate should be seen as less of a reflection of electoral advantage and more so a reflection of the presidential candidate.

Historically, successful presidential candidates usually pick runningmates who suit the way they will govern.  George W. Bush selected Cheney, indicating that the President would heavily rely on the counsel of others.  Bill Clinton selected Al Gore indicating he was looking for a fully invested partner.

Politico has an excellent piece on the politics of picking a mate which espouses similar sentiments.

Both selections went against conventional wisdom: Clinton and Gore paired a young Southerner with...another young Southerner.  Bush and Cheney saw two men from Texas, one who had to re-establish his Wyoming residency in order to be eligible to run. (Dick Cheney was living in Texas and the constitution bars a President and Vice President serving from the same state - this should have been the first clue of the "flexible terms" in which they would view the constitution for the next eight years).

* * *

Having that primer, let's put all of the math aside and see if we can get into the mind of FPBO and figure out where his leanings might be.  Chances are, it may be a choice out of nowhere!

FPBO probably prefers someone likely want someone whom offers reliable counsel, has Washington credibility is easy to work with on the campaign trail and most of all...who can be President.  And though he represents a brand of change, FPBO might perfer a mate who is less likely to lead an Obama-esque revolution and more likely to follow marching orders.  Add to that, Obama's strongest Washington ties are in the US Senate.  Hmm...

And awaaaaaay we go...

Chris Dodd, Connecticut.  Sitting senator who also a primary opponent this season, he was the first to endorse FPBO.  Has an expertise in financial markets and is former Chair of the Democratic National Committee.  And he offers two things that help in Western states: Dodd is fluent in Spanish and his wife is Mormon - two things that come in handy in Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico.

Tom Harkin, Iowa. Once a presidential contender himself, he's been around Washington as a Congressman and Senator from more than 30 years.  Has an expertise in rural issues, was an early supporter of FPBO prior to the Iowa caucuses and he is a grandfatherly type figure who people can probably easily envision assuming the office of President.  He is rural, and he is Catholic - both which are two important constituencies this year.

George Mitchell, Maine.  Former Federal Judge, Ambassador and Senate Majority Leader.  Is respected around Washington and is known as a bi-partisan bridge-builder.

Harry Reid, Nevada.  Current Senate Majority Leader from the swing state of Nevada, and has experience at the state level.  Also a Mormon.

Jay Rockefeller, West Virginia.  Current Senator, former Governor, and endorser of FPBO.  Offers a lifetime of political experience and has served in Washington for more than 20 years.  Currently age 70, he has never voiced ambitions to run for President.

 

 

Friday Veepstakes - the Party Leaders edition!

The LA Times offers a list of potential Obama running mates this week, and Politico gives a glimpse into VP vetting and selection process and why we obsess over it.

Zeroing in on Party Leaders this week.  The list is limited to those who may not have been previously mentioned.  As always, very interested in reader feedback.

So, without further ado, awaaaaaay we go...

5.  Bob Graham, Florida. Retired Governor and Senator from the Sunshine state.  Has executive experience, a familiarity with the federal system and the Senate, and...helps in Florida.    But he's been on the shortlist both in 1992 and in 2000 and didn't make the ticket.

4.  Harry Reid, Nevada.  Current Senate Majority Leader, and from Nevada - a battleground state.  He has national name recognition and is a moderate Democrat which could alter any perception that an Obama ticket is too liberal.  Also - Reid joing the ticket could compel him to vacate his leadership role in the Senate, creating room for Clinton to become Senate Leader.  But Reid is pro-life which may not go over well many in the Party.

3.  David Bonior, Michigan.  Former U.S. House Democratic Whip.  Also was part of John Edwards' 2008 management team for President.  Bonior has strong ties with the labor community, but his committment to pro-choice issues is questionable.

2.  Tom Daschle, South Dakota. Former Senate Minority Leader.  Still prominent in Washington circles and has been active in Obama's campaign.  He brings experience and credentials well suited for the office of Vice President which presides over the Senate, and his soft spoken demeanor isn't going to overshadow that of the presumptive nominee.  He could put South Dakota in play but perhaps more importantly he can help with outreach to rural voters in other states.  Note: Obama also has quite a few former Daschle staffers on his roster.  Hmm...

1.  Dick Gephardt, Missouri. Former Congressman, Democratic House of Representatives leader.  Well known and respected in Washington, and has an interest in the executive branch: he's run for President both in 1988 and in 2004.  Has tight ties with labor groups, voted against NAFTA, and is pro-choice.  He is also a Clinton ally by way of Terry McAuliffe so offers unity to the tickt.  Plus: he's from Missouri - a key swing state in November.

Friday Veepstakes

The Gubernatorial Edition!

For starters, the word "Gubernatorial" doesn't make much sense to me. It doesn't fit with "Governor" the same way "Senatorial" fits with "Senator."  Where did that "b" come from?  And why ya switchin' up vowels on us and stuff?  Well it is what it is...

Historically, Governors don't make great Vice Presidential candidates as they do Presidential candidates: in the past 100 years only three presidential tickets have successfully elected a Governor as Vice President (Marshall, Coolidge, Agnew), while eight Governors have been elected in the same amount of time (which includes Franklin Roosevelt's four terms).

But this is an unusual year, so anything is possible.

We've heard Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas and Ted Strickland of Ohio mentioned quite a bit, but what about the other Governors?  Here's a list of five that may also be considered as potential running mates.

And awaaaay we go:

Janet Napolitano, Arizona: Popular in her home state as a second-term Governor and former Attorney General.  Comes from the same state as John McCain and could put Arizona back in play.  Early Obama supporter.

Brian Schweitzer, Montana: Very popular in his home state and with rural audiences.  But is also up for re-election this year.  Does joining a ticket mean having to abandon his re-election campaign?  Others have run for VP while running for re-election to the Senate (LBJ in 1960 and Lieberman in 2000) but those offices are related to one another.  Schweitzer has not declared support for either candidate.

Tom Vilsack, Iowa (ret.): he was a finalist to be Kerry's runningmate in 2004, but his 2008 campaign for President never took off.  He can help with the rural vote and will carry Iowa - but can he carry any other states?  Early Clinton supporter.

Phil Bredesen, Tennessee: Current second-term Governor of Tennessee and former mayor of Nashville.  Even though he has roots in New York and New Jersey, he has been in the south for 30 years and might be able to help the Democratic ticket in the south and in rural communities.  A successful businessman, Bredesen does not accept a salary.  Like Senator Obama, he is a fellow Harvard alum.  Has no federal or foreign relations experience to offer.

Bill Richardson, New Mexico: former Democratic Governor's Association Chair and former presidential candidate.  Helps with the Latino vote, carries his home state and makes Nevada competitive.  One of a few governors who also offers significant foreign policy experience, having served as a Congressman and United Nations Ambassador.  But is the country ready for a black/brown ticket?  Then again both Obama and Richardson are half white, so would that mean it's really a black/brown/white ticket?  Obama supporter.

 

Honorable mentions: Martin O'Malley of Maryland could add youthful spark to the ticket, while Bill Ritter f Colorado could help in the western states.  But both have only been in office for about 18 months, and neither offer any foreign policy or federal experience.

And on a similar note...

The Raleigh News & Observer reports that John Edwards has privately told aides that he would consider the role of vice president, and favored the position of attorney general. 

Ah, the plot thickens.  Stay tuned...

Friday Veepstakes (Part II)

Some questions have trickled in about the VP process and rather than save them for the Saturday Q&A, figured I'd offer them up as part of the discussion during Friday Veepstakes.  So here goes...

Q: CAN THE CONVENTION DELEGATES PICK A VICE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE OVER THE WILL OF THE PRESUMPTIVE NOMINEE?

A: Can we?  Yes.  Will we?  No.  This question comes in part based on an article at Real Clear Politics by Bob Beckel, who writes "count on it" when it comes to the big bad Superdelegates pushing to put Senator Clinton on the ticket.  Hmm...not so fast.

The convention votes on a vice presidential runningmate, but it is highly unlikely that we will act beyond the will of the presumptive nominee.  Both pledged and Super delegates alike are savvy folks.  We've all been heavily immersed in the political process for years (OK some pledged delegates only for months, but what an intense few months they've been).  Add to that, whereas the DNC has allowed the campaigns to run their course during the nomination period, the national Party will likely be compelled to step in and defend the presumptive nominee's ability to own the VP selection process.

Right now we all want to come together as a Party, and while 50% of the delegates at the convention are women (all state delegations are gender-balanced), the majority of voters are for Obama, and with a few possible exceptions, we will cast our votes the way the Obama campaign asks us to.  Party unity starts with coalescing around the decisions of your Party leader, not by forcing other candidates on him. 

Yet I do believe that Senator Clinton will be on the short list of VP names that is floated around, which should offer delegates satisfaction that she is being given a fair shot in the selection process.

The last time the convention picked a running mate at its own will was in the 1950's, when Adlai Stevenson left the deciding of a Vice Presidential candidate up to the floor of the convention, where the delegates selected Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver over John F. Kennedy (I'm not clear on whether or not the 1968 convention chose Ed Muskie, or if presumptive nominee Hubert Humphrey put Muskie forward as his pick).
 

Q: WHEN WILL THE PROCESS START?

A: While it is evident that Senator Obama will be the Democratic nominee, his campaign will likely wait until he has a majority of pledged delegates and/or until the campaign has 2,025 delegates (likely to occur at the same time or within days of each other) before announcing a VP process. Once that happens, vetting for potential runningmates will begin and a few names may be floated to generate some buzz in the media.  But overall, we shouldn't expect to hear serious speculation from the campaign or the Party until June, with an announcement likely coming at the end of July or early August.

From what I can recall, Al Gore was on the short list with Lee Hamilton, Bob Kerrey and Bob Graham in late June of 1992, and he was then officially named on July 9th, 1992.  However, the 1992 DNC convention was also scheduled to start on July 13, so in effect Gore was named just four days prior.  Al Gore announced the selection of runningmate Joe Lieberman on August 8th, 2000 just six days prior to the 2000 DNC convention.  And John Kerry chose John Edwards on July 6th, roughly three weeks prior to the 2004 DNC convention which opened on July 26th.

Thus there are traditionally two time markers which indicate when a VP nominee will be announced: after the July 4th holiday, and just before the opening gavel of the DNC convention.  What is unique this year is that the gap between the 4th of July and the start of the convention is nearly seven weeks.

So, why the wait?  The first reason is that the excitement of a runningmate brings something new and interesting to the campaign - thus generating buzz and added news value for the Democratic convention. The other reason is that the vetting process needs time to play out, time to float names in the papers and see what the public reaction will be, and to give a thorough background check to each contender.  There are also legalities that need to be addressed when adding a runningmate to a national ticket, all of which take some time.

Q: MIGHT THERE BE A CHANCE THAT A REPUBLICAN VICE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE WILL BE ON THE DEMOCRATIC TICKET?

A: No.

Friday Veepstakes (Part I)

The all-female edition!

Today we'll explore women who might join Senator Barack Obama on the Democratic ticket - and my number one pick may surprise you. As always, curious to read your feedback.

And awaaaaay we go...

5.  Claire McCaskill, Senator from Missouri: an early supporter of Senator Obama, McCaskill has demonstrated an ability to win repeatedly at the statewide level in Missouri, a key swing state.  Downside: she struggles among rural voters, an area in which Democrats need to improve.

4.  Loretta Sanchez, Congresswoman from California: as a Latina from the west coast, she could help Senator Obama among a crucial bloc of Latino voters in Nevada, New Mexico - maybe even in Arizona.  She is a star in the Democratic Party with strong union ties, and as a Clinton supporter could help represent a unity ticket.  Downside: she doesn't help much in rural areas, plus - is the country ready for a black/brown ticket?

3.  Kathleen Sebelius, Governor of Kansas: as a former chair of the Democratic Governor's Association, she is well-known on the national Democratic scene and has demonstrated an ability to win in an otherwise conservative state.  Coming from Kansas, she helps in rural areas and was given national prominence earlier this year when she gave the Democratic response to Bush's state of the union  Downside: adding her to the ticket doesn't ensure that Kansas, the home of Bob Dole, will follow her in the election.

2.  Hillary Clinton, Senator from New York: what makes her a strong pick is her name recognition, ability to raise money from large donors and the level of organization demonstrated by her presidential campaign.  The main problem will be that some people might think that the same things which make her a strong pick are what make her a weak pick.  But she has to be in the mix.  To be honest I'm not sure that she would accept a VP position, but an Obama/Clinton ticket would be tough to beat.

1.  Blanche Lincoln, Senator from Arkansas: she is only 48, but she's been in Congress and the Senate for nearly two decades.  She has a background in rural and farm issues, and is considered to be a moderate and centrist Democrat.  As a Superdelegate supporting Senator Clinton, and hailing from Arkansas, she could be the person that brings the Clinton and Obama wings of the Party together at the convention.  Even though she's been around Congress for a while, she could represent a "fresh face" for the party as most Americans still do not know her.  She is also a relatively young mother with two small children, a lot of Americans may find she is someone they can identify with.

Friday Veepstakes

Could Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey balance out a presidential ticket?  Politico asks the question and makes some good points.

Though Casey hasn't been in the Senate all that long, so he does bring a lot of federal experience to the table.  Also hindering his prospects are that he's pro-gun and pro-life, which is certain create a stir among the party activist ranks.  But Casey carries an important constituency (Christian white voters) and he could make Pennsylvania a bit harder for Republicans to vie for in the fall. 

Might not be a perfect selection, but then again nothing in the Veepstakes guessing game ever is...

Friday Veepstakes

The "free-for-all" edition.  Not many thoughts on Vices this week, curious to see what readers are thinking in terms of runningmates for the candidates.  There's been lots of support for Richardson and Sebelius here before, would love to hear some fresh ideas as well.

As always, this is based on the notion that the two candidates do not run as a merged ticket.  Let's have at it...

Friday Veepstakes

There has been a lot of talk about Rust Belt and white voters this week.  And white voters are still a majority in this country, so it's a valid point.  So, if the candidates don't chose each other, then they have some vetting to do.

Thus I bring you the White Christian Male edition of Friday Veepstakes.  Let's take a look at the eligible runningmates in this category...

Joe Biden, Delaware.  Pros: he's got extensive experience in the US Senate, particularly in foreign policy and he is (relatively) well known - particularly in the Philadelphia media market because he is from Delaware.  Cons: He comes from Delaware...home to 3 electoral votes.

Evan Bayh, Indiana.  Pros: former Governor, current Senator, experienced, and comes from an important Rust Belt state.  Cons: Picking-up Bayh doesn't guarantee carrying Indiana, might not add a lot of "punch" to the ticket.

Ted Strickland, Ohio.  Pros: experienced - former Congressman and current Governor.  Well known and liked in the region.  Cons: Strickland was just elected in 2006, last name is kind of long - hard to fit on a yard sign!

Wesley Clark, Ark.  Pros: former four-star General, brings military and foreign policy experience to the ticket, helps in middle America, looks good in a sweater.  Cons: maybe not as charismatic as some of the others, may not carry his home state.

Bill Nelson, Florida.  Pros: current US Senator and astronaut yes ASTRONAUT.  Brings in 25 electoral votes from Florida, might be the olive branch necessary to bring voters home.  Also could counter if McCain were to pick Florida Republican Governor Charlie Christ.  Cons: Not as much experience with issues overseas (even though he's got some in outer space) and may not be able to counter if McCain were to pick Gov. Christ.

Bill Bradley, New Jersey.  Pros: former US Senator from New Jersey, lots of experience at the federal level and with tax policy, well-known and respected among Democrats and Republicans.  Was a former NCAA tournament MVP so he has some star appeal.  Cons: doesn't really have that much foreign policy experience.

Long shot/dark horse pick - Ben Chandler, Kentucky.  Pros: Congressman who sits on Appropriations and comes from a state that Bill Clinton won twice.  Cons: not much foreign policy experience, only in office four years, and comes from a state the George W. Bush won twice.

Friday Veepstakes

A few Fridays ago I posted an excerpt from a Washington Post blog by Chris Cillizza offering a list of potential running mates or "number 2's" for Senators Clinton and Obama (if not each other).  At the time I mentioned that there are two notable names left off the list, former New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley on Obama's ticket and Retired General Wesley Clark on either Clinton or Obama's ticket.

At least there's someone out there that might agree with this assertion.  The same web site mentions Joe Biden, who brings tons in the way of experience and foreign policy to the table, and could help in the general election in Pennsylvania.  Because even though he's from Delaware, that state is partially in the Philadelphia media market so he has some exposure there.

And just for yucks, I'll include this Veepstakes article in the New Zealand Herald.